The SOPR indicator (benefit ratio for worn output) reveals a growing profit taking movement among Bitcoin’s long -term holders (BTC), although the market still shows no signs of a definitive peak.
The data suggest that investors are taking advantage of the recent increase in currency, But the upward cycle could have more route before possible exhaustion, stands out The analyst who identifies as “GAAH” in a report of the on-chain Cryptoquant data provider.
The SOPR measures the relationship between the price at which a bitcoin is sold and the price at which it was acquired, indicating whether investors are obtaining profits or losses when moving their funds. A value greater than 1 indicates that bitcoins are sold with benefit, while a value below 1 implies losses.
For long -term holders (LTH), those who maintain their bitcoin for more than 155 days, SOPR is a key tool to evaluate market behavior in bullish cycles.
The SOPR for the LTH reached its maximum of 2025, exceeding the average range with a value slightly greater than 2.5, according to Cryptoquant data.
Below is a graphic that illustrates the relationship between the SOPR for the long -term holders (LTH) and the price of Bitcoin over time.
This level It reflects a growing sales behavior among older hodlers, Those who change their bitcoin for money Fíat to capitalize on profits.
However, analyst Gaah emphasizes that the indicator remains below the red zone, historically associated with cycle peaks when the SOPR LTH exceeds the 4.0 threshold. “The LTH sell with more profits, but not at excessive levels of euphoria,” he explains.
Therefore, the market shows a warm atmosphere, but not on the verge of collapse. Investors must monitor this trend, since A sustained SAPR increase could indicate a maturation of the upward cycle, although with risks of corrections along the way.
Sale or rotation to Altcoins?
On the other hand, analyst Shayanmarkets offers a different perspective. According to him, Bitcoin flows to the exchanges, the highest since July 2024, They do not necessarily indicate mass sales, but a possible rotation towards other cryptocurrencies.
Below is a graphic that shows the total netccoin net flow in the exchanges.
“These movements suggest that investors could be exchanging BTC for Altcoins, which could boost a rally in alternative assets,” says Shayanmarkets.
This net flow towards the exchanges also points to a greater availability of Bitcoin for trade, which can increase volatility, especially at times of high demand.
Historically, peaks in exchanges flows have preceded deep corrections. Current data suggest that great players, such as funds or institutions, they could be managing their risk exposure near Bitcoin’s historical.
Optimistic projections for 2025
Despite the distribution signs, Bitcoin projections in 2025 are still up. Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, provides that the price will reach $ 180,000. Bernstein analysts go further, predicting a value of $ 200,000 per unit.
For its part, Iván Paz Chain, CEO of TrainingDifferent, estimates a minimum of $ 140,000, as reported by cryptootics.
The increase in gain taking and flows to exchanges reflect a dynamic market, but still far from a definitive peak, according to the SOPR.
The rotation towards cryptocurrencies and risk management by large investors add complexity to the panorama. Traders must closely monitor these metrics, since they could anticipate significant movements in the price of Bitcoin and the market in general.
