When Germany, France and United Kingdom representatives meet their counterparts from Iran in Iran on Friday to interact on the future of Iran’s nuclear program, a lot is at stake. If the dialogue fails, Iran risks a new wave of sanctions.
There are questions about the technical status of Iran’s nuclear program after the attacks by Israel and the United States on Iranian nuclear facilities in June. Or can Iran continue its program.
The available limited information available by US President Donald Trump does not appear to support claims that Iran’s nuclear features and nuclear programs have been “fully distracted,” Hamidreza Azizi said Iran’s specialist from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
In his view, Iran will probably be able to resume its enrichment program to some extent in the moderate period. Azizi estimates that the country still has a very rich uranium which is stockpil over the last few years.
Uncertainty about the status of enrichment technology
“Iran is not denied the ability to enrich uranium,” Azizi told DW. “So far, there is no indication that Iran has actively taken steps to resume its program, but such a step is more of the case of military and safety cone rather than a political decision as well as technical capacity.”
Michael Brajoska, a political scientist at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at Hamburg University, took a slightly different stance. Hey said that it is technically more difficult for Iran to continue to enrich uranium which is still available for a level to make nuclear weapons.
The Centrifuse required for enrichment has been damaged to such an extent that they cannot be used, Brajoska said. He said, “Although it cannot be dismissed that there may be hidden centrifuge in other places, there is no information on it at present,” he said.
What messages are coming out of Tehran?
To pressurize Iran, Germany, France and the UK, Iran agreed with the US to set a time limit to reach the nuclear deal with the US in the middle of Iran. This ends in late August. If no agreement is reached by then, European partners have planned to automatically restore restrictions against previous and Tehran.
It is possible that the Iranian leadership is rethinking its current strategy, Brajoska believes. Iran has repeatedly stated that it wants to use its nuclear program for military purposes. “But its behavior, especially the high-level promotion of uranium, brought it closer to this possibility,” he said. “And thus it has created fear among other states.”
Iran is currently singing “mixed signal”, Azi told DW, stating that Iran, including the President and Foreign Minister, insisted that Iran was open to diplomatic engagement. At the same time, he does not see any indication that Iran is ready to soften its positions on other controversial issues, searching as domestic uranium enrichment or its support for non-state actors in the field.
Azizi said, “Leadership is trying to buy time and avoid renewed growth until they determine how to address various problems.”
America goes it alone with its own sanctions
However, Iran’s time is limited to the August deadline. After this date, the United Nations restrictions, which were removed as part of the Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) in 2016, may be known once again, known as a nuclear deal.
The agreement includes a mechanism known as “Snapback”, which inspires each signators – America, UK, France, China, Russia, Germany and European Union – to initiate a process that will be an automatic leader for re -evaluation of all United Nations restrictions against Iran after 30 days.
Under Trump’s first administration, the US withdrew from the agreement in 2018, so it cannot start this mechanism. However, a conversation in mid -July suggests that three European states are coordinating with Washington.
Meanwhile, the US has imposed its sanctions against Iran. Thesis targets specific sectors of the economy, such as oil exports and banking transactions, and it includes restrictions against third countries and companies that trade with Iran.
Is there a shared interest in reaching the agreement?
In this regard, the result of the upcoming negotiations is very important for Iran, Brajoska said. “The US -affected sanctions will eventually be imported more than an Iranian approach. However, the Snapback mechanism is likely to motivate a full range of states to impose economic sanctions on Iran,” Heer said.
Thesis restrictions will affect oil exports, for example, as well as the transfer of so -called dual -USU technology, ie, technology can be used for military purposes. “Iran is therefore likely to work towards ensuring that Europeans do not follow this mechanism,” Brajoska said.
Beyond the possibility of not activating the Snapback Agreement, however, the three European states have no other incentives or carrots to offer Iran, Ajai said. It can reach for a more difficult agreement, believing.
“The best we can hopes from the upcoming negotiations that both sides may agree to expand the deadline to trigger the Snapback mechanism, allowing more time to diplomacy and potential diplomatic resolutions,” he said.
The article was original in German.
