Analyst says that the indicator points to September 10 as the date of the last Ath of the Bullrun.
“Optimism and caution must coexist,” says the specialist.
Bitcoin (BTC) rides over a wave of euphoria, with its price close to $ 119,000, but a technical shadow looms over the horizon. The MVRV indicator flashes as a warning signal, indicating that the upward cycle could be about to exhale its last breath.
The next September 10 emerges as a lighthouse on the calendara date that, according to a analysis Shared by the on-chain data supplier, Cryptoquant, made by the trader known as Yonsei_dent, could mark the zenith of the BTC upward market.
The MVRV indicator is a market thermometer that compares Bitcoin’s current value with the price at which its coins were acquired. Its 365 -day mobile average (365 DMA) has historically drawn the peaks of the bullish cycles.
The following graph shows the price of Bitcoin, while the lower one represents the MVRV (orange) indicator and its mobile socks (30 Dma in red, 365 Dma in blue). Historically, as seen in 2021, the MVRV and its 365 DMA reached a double peak pattern (marked by red vertical lines) just before market falls. Currently, in 2025, the graph shows that the MVRV and its 365 DMA approach a new peak on September 10, replicating a scenario similar to the previous market roofs. This convergence suggests a possible overvaluation and the imminent purpose of the upward cycle.
In 2021, this indicator drew a double beak pattern, such as the humps of a camel, just before the market collapsed in a bearish winter. The second peak was the final omen. Today, in 2025, analysts’ screens show a disturbing echo of that pattern, with a new maximum projected for September 10.
Macroeconomic winds stir the waters
But, the market does not operate in a bubble. While investors scrutinize the graphs, the outside world adds its own narrative. On July 30, the Federal Reserve will hold its meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), an event that could tip the balance.
With the Interest rates anchored at 4.50% and without cuts in viewthere is pressure from President Donald Trump so that the FED loosen its monetary policy.
“This moment is aligned with the wider narratives of the market, such as the expectations of a possible cut of fees and changes in the macroeconomic feeling,” says Yensei_dent, with the look fixed on the currents that could divert the course of Bitcoin.
A peak that lurks earlier than expected
But the MVRV 365 DMA is not an infallible prophet; It is a lagged indicator, a narrator who tells the story after the facts.
This means that Bitcoin’s real peak could arrive before, possibly at the end of August. “Optimism and caution must coexist,” warns the analyst, urging investors to adjust their risk strategies.
The analyst’s voice is a reminder that euphoria can be a trap, so it indicates to traders that this is the time to refine risk management, to move with the agility of a fluctuate on the tightrope.
Bitcoin uprising perspectives persist
Despite the warnings, Bitcoin projections in 2025 are still optimistic. Michael Saylor, CEO of Strategy, forecasts a price of $ 180,000, while Bernstein analysts raise the bet to $ 200,000.
Iván Paz Chain, CEO of TrainingDifferent, establishes a minimum of $ 140,000. These figures reflect confidence in the long term, but the short term demands surveillance, as reported by cryptoics.
With the MVRV as a guide, Yensei_dent underlines the importance of adapting to on-chain signals. “Let the momentum on-chain guide your strategy,” he recommends. As Bitcoin approaches a possible turning point, investors face a clear challenge: Balance enthusiasm with prudence in a market that does not forgive mistakes.
Clarification: This article is written as an informative way. It does not represent an investment recommendation or financial council. Each investor is responsible for conducting their own research.
