Monitor Bitcoin holdings of corporate treasury is crucial.
If a large Bitcoin treasury company sold its coins, it would unleash panic in the market.
The phenomenon of companies that include Bitcoin (BTC) in their corporate treasury and that make this practice its main business model goes beyond being just a trend. Actually, these movements, although they are generating opportunities, are also pending systemic risks for the ecosystem.
Although today the data does not show signals of imminent danger, from the investment firm Capriole Investments warn that The risk will be evident once some of these companies begin to sell Your Bitcoin holdings.
Since 2024, the number of companies that adopt BTC as a strategic asset has grown rapidly. Currently, 215 public contribution companies worldwide maintain Bitcoin in their balance sheets. Microstrategy’s pioneering model – now renowned “Strategy” – It has served as a guide for other corporations that seek to replicate their yields.
Charles Edwards, financial analyst and founder of Capriole, asserts that this environment has been possible thanks to favorable liquidity conditions, greater regulatory clarity and new infrastructure for Bitcoin acquisition. This set of factors has allowed institutional capital to flow towards the ecosystem more confidently.
On-chain data reflect this change: as of July 2025, 74% of Bitcoin’s total supply is in the hands of long-term holders (LTH), equivalent to 15.7 million bitcoin, as can be seen in the following graphic Bitbo:
This percentage marks a historical maximum and suggests a strong conviction of current investors. Historically, this type of concentration does not occur in the final stages of a market cycle; on the contrary, It is more common at the beginning of new bullish impulses.
Among the LTH stand out the calls Bitcoin Treasury Companies (TC), or BTC Treasury companies. These corporate entities are playing an active role in the absorption of the supply of BTC, since they have adopted a continuous purchasing policy and not saleswhich makes them a kind of market liquidity vacuum cleaners.
The founder of Capriolle expects that, if the current acquisition rate is maintained, Bitcoin holdings in corporate hands will exceed those of ETFs in the next 6 to 12 months. Something remarkable, considering that, currently, ETFs accumulate 1.37 million bitcoin, controlling 6.56% of total supply; While TC steps on their heels with 1.24 million BTC in custody.
The analyst warns that this behavior can amplify market cycles: today they favor price increase, But in the future they could accelerate falls if they decide to liquidate part of their reserves.
What could trigger corporate sales?
Since 2024, Capriole has begun to take exposure in shares of companies that adopt Bitcoin as the Treasury Assets. The firm also developed a monitoring system to closely follow the evolution of these companies.
Among the variables analyzed are the acquisition rate of Bitcoin, the relationship between the company’s market value and its BTC (MNAV) holdings, and the sensitivity at the Bitcoin price of those purchases. According to Capriolle, these companies allow an leveraged exposure to Bitcoin, useful for short -term strategies when the market shows bullish signals.
Currently, the environment is still favorable: the price of Bitcoin has exceeded $ 123,000 (although this Friday, August 1, he corrected until the USD 114,000) and the companies continue to buy. In addition, debt levels are relatively low and many of these companies maintain a policy of only acquisition without sales. In this context, Their actions may show yields above the market average.
The latter has been a demonstrated fact. For example, Strategy actions, which accumulates 628,791 Bitcoin So far, have increased by 143.6% in one year, reaching historical maximums, as seen in the following graph. Everything, because of the impulse that BTC has given him.
Another remarkable case is that of Metaplenet, a Japanese company that closely follows Strategy’s steps and accumulates 17,000 bitcoin, whose shares have grown 787% in the same periodas the graph shows below, equally motivated by its progressive investment in BTC.
However, Edwards warns that this balance is fragile. Many of the new companies are entering the market with purchase prices close to $ 100,000 per BTC, which leaves little margin if the price stagnates or falls.
He explains that, to the extent that the number of participants grows, so does the competition, which could reduce the capacity of companies to attract fresh capital. In that scenario, Some entities could be tempted to use more debt to continue expanding their positionassuming additional risks.
Indeed, Bitcoin’s corporate fever has been unleashed, with companies in Latin America, the United States, Asia and Europe opening space for the creation of Satoshi Nakamoto in their balances. This, using methods such as Strategy, which has borrowed with up to 2,000 million dollars to buy Bitcoin.
The breakdown
The breakdown, according to the analyst, will arrive when some of These companies are forced to sell part of their reservations. This can happen by shareholders pressure, liquidity needs or financial restructuring.
Although the background reason is not critical, the simple fact that a prominent company, type Strategy, sells its bitcoin, It could generate distrust and trigger a chain reaction. Other companies could mimic the movement to avoid larger losses, causing a rapid drop in the price of BTC.
This has already been warned in the past by critics to the strategy of the company of Michael Saylor, who have just pointed out the systemic risk that supposes that one of these great whales decides to leave their holdings.
Craig Coben, former Global Chief of Capital Markets at the Bank of America, said that Strategy’s “virtuous circle” can become a “vicious circle” if the price of BTC falls, Because any purchase of BTC “will be dilutive for shareholders”Cryptonotic reports.
If that reality is extrapolated to all the companies that have invested in Bitcoin, a scenario of A room full of people trying to go out a single door at the same timedraw Edwards, from Capriole.
It is not something new, in previous cycles of traditional markets and cryptocurrencies, similar dynamics have had a similar end. From retail leverage in the stock market in 1929, to the Luna case in 2022, they have been scenarios that have triggered large Financial crisis.
Given this situation, Bitcoin sales monitoring by companies has become a key component. In short, Edwards says, the phenomenon of corporate treasury will continue to drive the market, of course, but the fact that The future behavior of these entities can mark the beginning of great corrections.
