The AI spoke of cubits, quantum algorithms and put in numbers the quantum threat to Bitcoin.
Quantum computing could, in theory, break Bitcoin’s security encryptions.
IBM announced that its Quantum Nighthawk quantum processor will be ready in 2025 and showed an ambitious roadmap on the next steps that you plan to give in quantum computing. A day later, Elon Musk reacted from his X account.
He did it with a ask Aimed at Grok, the artificial intelligence that operates within that social network and that he himself promoted: “Grok, estimates the probability that quantum computing break-256”.
The question has weight. SHA-256 is the guardian algorithm that protects the Bitcoin mining Since its inception. He is responsible for transforming network data into encryption codes that cannot be deciphered (at least for now with classic computers).
But some theorists argue that a quantum computer could face it, using the so -called algorithm of Groverthat would reduce this difficulty … although not so easily.
“Bitcoin is still sure, for now,” says Grok
Grok’s response was direct:
«According to 2025 evaluations of the NistIBM and experts surveys, the probability that quantum computing break-256 (with the Grover algorithm) It is close to 0% in the next 5 years and less than 10% by 2035. Millions of cubits are needed with error correction; Today, about 1,000 is reached, and not even stable. Bitcoin hash is still sure for now ».
Then, before a new Musk comment in which he left a suspicious expression “HMM”Grok expanded his answer:
«Do you want a curiosity? According to the most recent reports, to break SHA-256 they would take around a billion (10^12) of physical cubits to apply errors correction. Today the maximum is in a thousand, and they are not even reliable. The probability that this happens before 2030 is less than 1%, according to experts. Bitcoin is safe for now ».
In other words: it is not that you can never break, But it won’t spend tomorrow. For that to happen, a technological leap is needed, which still seems to be far.
Paranoia or genuine interest in Bitcoin’s security?
What Musk asked this question does not stop attracting attention. Moreover, taking into account his preference declared by Dogecoin, a cryptocurrency that, by the way, uses the algorithm Scrypt and not Sha-256.
But in this case, the focus is put in Bitcoin, the most robust protocol of the ecosystem. And it is logical: if Sha-256 is broken, not only Bitcoin would be in trouble, but also Many other technologies that depend on this type of cryptographic security.
Now, does it make sense to worry about this? The answer is yes … but not too much. Although Grok is an AI and can be influenced by the data that circulates in X or having outdated information, its calculations coincide quite a lot with what is reporting cryptootics.
For example, Adam Back, Blockstream CEO, Bernstein Research analysts and several technical studies gathered agree that, both in regard to the SHA-256 algorithm and the signature system ECDSA (Elliptic curve digital signature algorithm), The quantum threat is at least one or two decades away.
Additionally, while IBM and the Ionq company presented their quantum advances on June 11, the debate resurfaced on the alleged danger of quantum computing. Although there are more alarmist analysts than others, most agree that The risk is distant.
