Summer in the northern hemisphere is usually a quiet station for financial markets.
In general, there are expectations that Bitcoin (BTC) will mark historical maximums near the end of the year.
Bitcoin (BTC) faces a period of calm in the market, typical of boreal summer, but historical data suggests that everything could be accelerated in the coming months, as one of the most moved quarters is coming for this digital asset.
While August shows an average monthly performance of just +1.66%, With a median even negative of -7.49%The story indicates that the fourth quarter tends to be one of the strongest (upstairs speech) of the year for Bitcoin.
According to Figures Coinglass, the average performance of BTC in the fourth quarter is +85.42%, with a median of +52.31%. In particular, October and November have been months with positive returns in most years, highlighting averages of +21.89% and +46.02%. A remarkable difference compared to December, which usually has negative yields, with averages of just +4.75%.
Also, in 7 of the last 10 years, Bitcoin finished the fourth quarter in positive. In 2020, BTC rose 168%; in 2017, 215%; in 2015, 81%; And in 2013, 479%, as can be seen below:
In contrast, August is presented as a weak month for Bitcoin. For example, the price of the asset has fallen into five of the last eight agos, including a decrease of -13.88% in 2022 and -11.29% in 2023. These figures are aligned with the typical behavior of financial markets during the summer in the northern hemisphere, When the activity tends to decrease and volatility usually moderates.
Looking ahead, projections point to a recovery. In the third quarter of 2025, BTC records a positive accumulated yield of +8.76% so far. The second quarter also closed in green, with +29.74%, after a fall of -11.82% in the first quarter. This sequence suggests a consolidation phase prior to a possible new impulse movement.
The behavior that Bitcoin has had, where his rally has stopped, is qualified by the analyst Marija Matic as something natural. For her, it does not mean the arrival of a crypto -winter, but a consolidation that could precede a rebound driven by seasonal factorsmacroeconomic dynamics and expectations in the market.
What price will Bitcoin arrive?
From a cyclical perspective, analysts such as Ryan Lee, by Bitget Research, argue that BTC, by the end of 2025, will reach a price greater than $ 130,000. For its part, the Standard Chartered Bank estimates a prolongation of the upward cycle with goals that include $ 300,000 in 2026, 400,000 in 2027 and 500,000 by 2028, cryptoics reported.
For his part, the analyst Willy Woo considers that the current upward cycle is in its final section, although it does not rule out continuity beyond 2025, taking into account one of the key market trends, which is the Institutional fever by BTC.
In addition to seasonal data, other indicators reinforce the thesis of an active quarter quarter. According to Weiss Crypto, gold behavior can anticipate Bitcoin movements. The firm indicates that, historically, the minimum of the precious metal precede those of the BTC. In 2018, for example, gold fell strongly in August and Bitcoin played background in December. This pattern has been repeated in other key market moments.
In that sense, if the current behavior of gold serves as a reference, it could be expected that BTC register a new upstand in the coming months. The correlation between both assets has been highlighted as a useful tool to anticipate cycles.
Investors who follow seasonal patterns could see in this behavior an additional argument to sustain a long -term position. However, the data also show that volatility remains a dominant characteristic of the market.
For now, the market enters a context of indecision and balance in August. So far this year, BTC accumulates a 20%increase, and if the dynamics of previous years are repeated, It is possible that the activity rebounds as the last quarter of the year is approaching.
Although the immediate present suggests calm, historical data and market projections suggest that Bitcoin could be approaching a higher performance window towards the end of 2025. We will see it.
