The Fed will cut interest rates in September, according to majority expectations.
Several factors would be combining to boost Bitcoin to new heights.
Will the Bull Run have finished or is there still a bullish way for Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies?
Recent falls could make some doubt. But the analyst Marija Matic Describe The decelerations that Bitcoin can have at this stage as “a natural, and even healthy pause, after months of strong ascending impulse.”
Based on its analysis, this behavior does not indicate a crypto winter, but a consolidation that could precede a rebound driven by seasonal factorsmacroeconomic dynamics and market expectations.
Matic explains that the main digital assets have tested key support levels, which points to a consolidation rather than a break. According to their perspective, these pauses are typical after periods of sustained increases.
In certain months, market activity decreases due to low participation seasons, such as in August (summer in the northern hemisphere). This reduces appetite due to risk, generating volatile prices and undecided movements. Such a situation generates more volatile prices, undecided movements and false signs in the market.
The following graph, provided by Coinglass, shows what Bitcoin’s monthly return has been since 2013:
Therefore, traders tend to act cautiously, says Matic. The lack of conviction in the price action brakes the impulse of cryptocurrencies. However, These phases are usually temporary and give way to periods of greater dynamism. However, this dynamic changes with the end of summer.
The fourth quarter, the ace under the sleeve
The analyst emphasizes that Bitcoin follows clear seasonal patterns. Historically, certain months of the fourth quarter have marked inflection points, with significant profits that make this period the strongest for Bitcoin. This favorable seasonal window could be aligned with a challenging macroeconomic environment, testing BTC’s resilience.
Historically, October marks a turning point for Bitcoin, with green candles in the last six years. But It is November that usually brings more robust profits. Together, these months make the fourth quarter the strongest period for the currency.
As summer yields, Bitcoin approaches this favorable seasonal window, which could coincide with a challenging macroeconomic environment.
In the past, Bitcoin has exceeded restrictive conditions, such as high commercial tariffs between large economies, without relying on rates cuts or monetary flexibility. Matic underlines this resilience, arguing that, with the appropriate catalysts, the Bitcoin upward market can prosper even in hostile environments, as happened last July which marked new historical maximums.
The Fed and a possible turn in monetary policy
Not only do analysts have a position on monetary policy. Polymarket tractors, a decentralized platform that operates with cryptocurrencies, mostly anticipate the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates at an upcoming meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as reported by cryptootics.
This expectation coincides with the projections by Goldman Sachs Research, which assign a high probability to monetary flexibility in the short term. David Mericle, chief economist for the United States of Goldman Sachs, estimates a probability of more than 50% of moderate cuts in the rates in September.
These adjustments, according to Mericle, respond to less severe effects than expected of recent commercial policies (tariffs established by Donald Trump) and more marked disinflationary forces. Some Fed officials also consider cuts if signs of weakness in the labor market persist, a point that reinforces Matic’s observations on the interaction between macroeconomic conditions and Bitcoin’s performance.
Monetary flexibility expectations reach the 93%. Goldman Sachs Research reinforces this perspective, even suggesting that the Fed could act earlier than anticipated by markets.
A catalyst on the horizon
Matic’s analysis suggests that, if a change in monetary policy coincides with the most favorable seasonal period of Bitcoin, a significant bullish dynamic could be unleashed For Bitcoin.
The historical resilience of the currency, combined with a more favorable macroeconomic environment and a propitious seasonal moment, creates an attractive configuration.
Investors, attentive to these signs, could be facing a combination of factors that, according to Matic’s vision, will be like a “wild card” that will boost Bitcoin’s price in the near future.
