During the afternoon prayers on March 28, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake hit the middle Myanmar with a teak fault.
With a sub -station close to Mandalay, the second largest city in the country, it was the most powerful earthquake to attack Myanmar since 1912. This led to widespread destruction of Mandalay’s infrastructure, while the report is very good among more than 5,000 people.
Its seismic influence reached the capital of Bangkok, Thailand, where it collapsed the 30-floor skyscraper, claiming at least 92 lives.
Could Ceemologists see it coming?
Scientists were estimating a large earthquake with a part of the mistake, which had not broken since a symbolic devastating earthquake in 1839. But they could not predict the earthquake, its sub -center or how devastating it.
“Despite the decades of efforts, scientists still can’t manufacture the whey and strike where the earthquakes will strike,” a mathematician kit yets of the Bath University in the UK told DW.
“The movements and interactions of the Earth’s tectonic plates are incredibly complex. To separate the earthquake signs of earthquake from background earthquake noise, which is uniquely, extremely difficult, with additional human activity.”
Five months after the circle earthquake, scientists are analyzing its destructive effects. Their discovery can help predict earthquake characteristics in the future.
“Hope to search [findings] At the time of future earthquakes, the magnitude and limit can be used, “California Institute of Technology, a US earthquaker gene-philip Avake, said, who led a new study. This week published in Pace Journal,
Why is the divisional earthquake so devastating?
Earthquake’s real-time footage revealed the movement of the teak fault in amazing expansion. The divisional earthquake hit a rapid, like a pulse -like breakdown with a fault line. Under the feet of the people, the ground separated three meters in just 1.3 seconds in the epicenter.
Overall earthquake lasted for 80 seconds, falls down by mistake of 460 km (285 mi) Surface displacement six meters (20 ft) deep,
Avouac’s team compared this data to the previous earthquake with similar characteristics. He created a computer model that had several predictions about the teak fault.
The major component of the model was described by tectonic changes caused by previous earthquakes. Avouac described it as a “memory effect” in the teak fault.
“This is a good result to show that our simple model results in a memory effect [and] Is conforming to [real world] Overview, “Avouac said.
The model confirmed that a “supershire” rupture – which enhances waves towards partition – was estimated at mistake due to its direct geometry and history of the same breakdown.
Their model has speculated that big earthquakes make irregular teak mistake and the next earthquake to hit Myanmar with a gap of about 141 years can be in 2166, give or take 40 years.
The model identified the characteristics of the mistake “slip” that helps refine the forecast about future breakdown.
Earthquake forecast, not predictions
Instead of predicting earthquakes, seismologists focus on forecasting seismic activity with better accuracy. Like weather forecasts, they aim to estimate the more extended period and the possibility of earthquake in the specific area.
Yats said, “Constant relationships are the frequency and energy of earthquakes.
The hope is that the time of future earthquakes can be models such as Avouac to forecast magnitude and limit.
Yates said, “Finding are important for disaster scheme. Cities like San Francisco, with a high probability of a major earthquake in the next 30 years, can hold the major investment in preparations,” Yets said.
Earthquake forecasts still have “big uncertainty”
Current models “can only assess the potential threat with large uncertainties,” Avouac said.
AVOAC stated that scientists are currently the undone to predict the time, location and magnitude of future dead with sufficient accuracy to take action like the order withdrawal of a city.
Earthquakes are chaotic phenomena, which means small changes even in early conditions can cause unexpected changes in seismic activity.
“The challenge is that the model needs to tune for a current mistake situation, but we do not know how to measure the distribution [tectonic] Stress, and don’t know enough [about] Avouac said, “Break to organize them again.
Researchers are currently aiming to better understand how seismic activity can take different types of earthquakes into hops, they will assess more accurate danger in the future.
Edited by: MW Agius
