Brrrr! Pointing on a deep freeze to come in this winter, the cold of autumn is crawling in most parts of Europe.
Fortunately, gas infrastructure Europe, Gas Operators Association, reports that the European Union Gas Reserve is only more than 80% [September 15, 2025] – 90% of the last few years less than cushion but stronger than 2021. So does it shine with heat or flicker with uncertainty in winter?
After Moscow’s Ukraine’s full -scale invasion in 2022, after a diverse energy supply from Russia, the European Union countries liquid natural gas (LNG) from Norway, the United States and Qatar, while continued to promote the rollout of renewable energy including wind.
In the last two years, thanks to that additional capacity, Europe was able to ensure that its reserve was filled by September, which provides additional cushions for the coldest months of the year. Gas stock should remain strong even in this winter.
Gas refill race seen as low critical
The European Union is no longer in an acute energy crisis, Brussels is flexible to give additional months to the European Union gas stock, by December 1, to reach 90% capacity, if request. In Europe, its gas reserve was more used in the last winter, which leaves the lower surplus than normal.
Energy analysts at the Center for Research on Energy and Clean Air, Petras Katinus, provides a “solid buffer” against current storage levels and alternative supply supply disruption. “But Rapid extraction and weather instability can still cause temporary value spikes or localized decrease, “he explained DW.
Europe’s internal flexibility, global supply status and implementing stable prices are supporting BLOC’s energy preparations for winter.
Agreement for Tom Mergek-Mankor from Global Research and Consultancy House Wood McCenzie, global energy supply is above this year, while the possibility of demand-especially weakening for gas-gas is weak.
Europe Gas and LNG, director of Consultancy, told DW, “This is a real advantage to recreate Europe’s storage units in this summer, which continues on a good clip.”
Despite this, the block is insecure for geopolitical shock, not at least not stems from US President Donald Trump Tavries.
Russia’s energy tetf makes new unspecified
Trump is pressurizing Brussels to ban buyers of Russian energy, arguing that it will reduce additional financial stress on Moscow to eliminate the three-year-year struggle.
Last week, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent told a group of European Union and 7 (G7) rich countries that they should join Washington in implementing “meaningful” tafs on China and India on their energy deals with Moscow.
Trump has told Brussels that the US has discovered the “mirror” to the tattif, which will be considered at a rate of 100%.
Trump has already affected 50% of the Tarams on India – 25% Baseline Plus 25% to make a deal to buy a concessional hydrocarbon with Moscow in 2022.
However, China – which increases the purchase of Russian energy – Trump’s tariff holds a strong conversation with Washington on the danger. As a result, the US President has so far underlined the plans of TAFs related to energy on the world’s second largest economy, while the conversation continues.
Ukraine Gas Transit Deal had a limited impact
The termination of Ukraine-Russia Gas Transit Agreement on 1 January marked another geopolitical pressure on Europe’s energy supply. Kive’s decision was found to not renew the deal that Russia’s effort was found for the purpose of cutting a revenue stream.
The five -year agreement, which allowed Russian gas to flow west through Ukrainian pipelines, effectively closed one of the last major routes in the European Union.
Price spikes and initial fears of supply disruption were widespread, especially in countries such as Austria, Slovakia and Hungary, which were more dependent on Russian pipeline gas. The prices of benchmark gas increased by about 50% last year amid concerns about cold weather and low flow.
Nevertheless the real market effect was muted. Western Europe had already diversified its energy sources, while underground storage levels remained strong in winter.
“Drop-off in volume [via Ukraine] Not too big, although some countries, especially Slovakia, had to resume some purchases, “Tom Marajek-Manjar said.” Because it was well anticipated, the end of the Ukraine Gas Transit Deal did not have an impact or supply effect. ,
2 -year target for energy freedom from Russia
After riding an energy crisis, the European Union is now in a strong position to diversify the supply of Russian hydrocarbons. According to the European Commission, the executive arm of the block, the block has already cut Russian gas imports from 45% to 19%, while Russian oil imports have already increased to 3% at the beginning of the war last year.
In May, the Commission published a detailed roadmap to ban all the remaining imports of Russian gas and liquefied natural gas by 2027. The plan requires the European Union states to present national plans for the phase of Russian gas by the end of the year, but it can still prove to be difficult for something.
“Baltic has done an excellent work away from the Russian fossil fuel, while Poland has a large -scale Russian gas,” Katinas told DW. Hey said that Pragati has been a “unnasal” in other veteran countries, which is due to lack of diversification efforts and lack of investment in renewal.
Strong gas stocks and diverse supply lines of the European Union are increasing the readiness of the winter of the blocks, yet Trump’s tariff moves and unexpected weather cloudy the horizon. Natural gas prices will possibly be unlikely to climb at € 340/MWH ($ 400) around 2022, but isolated deficiency may bounce temporary spikes.
Edited by: Uwe Hessler