The dollar could be entering its third great bearish cycle, according to analyst.
Bitcoin exceeds the dollar, revaluing at 17% in 2025.
The US dollar has had a bad performance this 2025, with its index (DXY) at levels not seen for almost 4 years, which shows a deterioration in the green ticket compared to other national currencies.
As can be seen in the following graph of TrainingViewDXY has fallen 10.3% since January 2025, returning to 97.3 level not seen since January 2022:
The dollar index compares the green ticket in front of six coins (the euro, the sterling pound, the Canadian dollar, the Swedish crown, the Swiss Franco and the YEN). This metric reflects the strength of the asset in the international economy.
Cryptonotics reported in July this year that the DXY suffered its worst first semester since 1973, the year of the end of the Bretton Woods system, when the then US president Richard Nixon announced the suspension of the convertibility of the dollar into gold.
The weakening of the US currency responds to various factors, including the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, which recently flexible, reducing interest rates to 4% per year. This decreases the profitability of the dollar -based assets, subtracting them attractive against other currencies. At the same time, the most solid recovery in economies such as Europe and Asia has promoted the demand for its coins, displacing the green ticket.
For financial analyst Héctor Chamizo, the dollar “could be entering his third great bearish cycle.” He remember that the green ticket already faced two historical falls in the 80s, 90 already beginning of this millennium. Now, “the pattern is repeated.”
«The dollar index has lost strength and 10 -year reading anticipates a prolonged decline. If this cycle is confirmed, the movement would have huge implications: greater tail wind for raw materials, emerging and gold, while the green ticket leaves the role of active dominant refuge, ”he says. “History says that when the green ticket enters descending phase, global markets change skin,” he adds.
On the other hand, Bitcoin (BTC), the most important digital currency on the market, has had a favorable performance so far this year. Since January, BTC has risen 16.4%, from $ 97,700 to the current $ 112,900as can be seen in the following graph:
In general, the weakening of the dollar drives volatile assets such as Bitcoin. In contexts of monetary expansion, Investors usually lean towards instruments with higher performance or with value reserve characteristics.
In the case of BTC, its historical performance has shown correlation with the growth of global monetary liquidity (M2): the greater the liquidity, its valorization has been greater.
Bitcoin’s technical properties – limited offender and decentralized structure— They profile it as an alternative of protection against coins exposed to expansive policies.