BTC went up to USD 117,000 after the trim of interest rates, but several factors weakened.
Only a greater demand could avoid a cooling in the market, according to the company.
The price of Bitcoin (BTC) reached $ 117,000 after the trimming of interest rates applied in the United States last week, in what was a reaction cautious to a news that, usually, benefits it. After that, the cold began to be perceived in the environment. The strength of the impulse was weakened notoriously and the fragility is the order of the day.
Glassnode, Market Research Analysis Firm, Believe What Bitcoin He is marking a pattern of “Buy the rumor and sells the news.” This means that the recovery by the decision of the Federal Reserve (FED) was followed by a profits and a weakening of the demand that now puts the continuity of the rally, according to analysts.
The company emphasizes that, during the past week, the relative force index (RSI), which measures the performance and impulse of the Bitcoin market, descended from overcompra areas, for an average of 71.2 points.
At the same time, the accumulated volume delta (CVD), which shows the buying pressure or seller accumulated in BTC, evidenced last week an abrupt fall of 128%, while the volumes were at USD 5.6 billion. These data show a weakened demand and a reduced participationdespite the escalation that occurred after the announcement of the Fed.
On the other hand, the behavior of the futures reflected mixed signals in the last week. For example, the open interest remained at high levels of USD 47.4 billion and the financing rose modestly. This suggests a cautious optimism. However, the perpetual CVD entered a strongly negative land, from 16.2 million dollars to 455.4 million. Said movement It points to a selling pressure already a more marked distribution by the leverage trailers.
In the Bitcoin ETF field that are negotiated in the United States, cooling was also evidenced. After weeks of strong tickets, net flows were reduced abruptly to 931 million dollars, 54.1% less than in previous weeks, when tickets reached USD 2,000 million.
For Glassnode, ETF data during last week show that Institutional demand shows moderation signalswith a pause in the accumulation by the actors of traditional finances.
Signs found
On-chain data, on the other hand, gave signs found during the last week. Active addresses and the volume of transfers in the Bitcoin network improved, indicating greater commitment and increased capital flows. But the rates fell 11.6%, reflecting lower congestion and a lower speculative demand. This suggests that participation grows, although without transactional urgency.
As for capital flows, they remained stable with a prudent bias. The capitalization carried out decreased slightly, the relations between short and long term holders increased and the hot capital stood above the historical range, by 35.1%. This indicates an increase in short -term activity, which raises the risk of additional volatility.
Likewise, the gain and loss metrics improved, at the time when the offer in profits, the unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), which measures the difference between the current market value and the value to which the currencies were acquired on average; as well as the profits obtained by the traders, they went up. The latter, reflecting greater profitability of investors and an active benefit taking.
Based on all of the above, Glassnode believes that The feeling of the Bitcoin market is resistant and with some bullish tonealthough it warns that this behavior opens the risk of demand exhaustion.
In a previous report, the same firm had already warned that maintaining the level of $ 115,000 was crucial: “Keeping the USD 115,000 is key to sustaining the impulse, while losing it runs the risk of a contraction towards $ 105,500,” said the company. The conclusion was that, after the rebound for the announcement of the Fed, almost the entire circulating offer was in the profit zone.
They also warned that the market was in fragile equilibrium and waiting for confirmations. “Stability above the key levels of the cost base could be extended upwards, while the fragility of the flows keeps the risk down alive,” they said at that time.
However, a stage of fragility and corrections materialized this Monday, September 22. BTC fell almost 3% and lost the level of $ 115,000negotiating around $ 112,600 on average, according to the cryptootic price calculator.
The fall caused a strong impact on the derivative market. For example, liquidations in the cryptocurrency market reached 1,710 million dollars in 24 hours, the highest figure recorded so far from 2025. In addition, hours before the fall under $ 113,000, $ 1,401 BTC that had been accumulated between two and three years were moved towards exchanges. This transfer is usually interpreted as a previous sale signal and reinforced the pressure in the market.
Corrections to the agenda
Aaron Olmos, a Venezuelan economist specializing in digital assets, explains to cryptonoticia that the influence on bitcoin of the Federal Reserve decisions is normal: “Corrections are the order of the day, remember that we are in the month of September. The month of September is a historical month of correction for Bitcoin for cycle issues,” he says.
Olmos points out that factors such as the American economy, tariffs and geopolitical events influence capital orientation. This could lead to movements to less volatile and safer vehicles, although temporarily. According to the specialist, Bitcoin tends to recover its space after September and is seen as an active refuge in the medium term.
On institutional participation, Olmos emphasizes that there will be – in his opinion – a substantial setback. He believes that institutional participation in the cryptoactive market, mainly Bitcoin, is something that will not stop. “Maybe you can slow your rhythm, but still growing significantly,” he explains.
In their opinion, BTC ETFs represent an option that comes to stay, even if momentary slowdown is produced.
The economist remarks that, despite the cooling phases, Bitcoin’s trajectory has demonstrated a structural trend upwards. “When you do the temporal analysis and see the evolution of Bitcoin in these 16 years, what is lived today is a phase of a cycle. While there are corrections or slowdown, Bitcoin always returns with more force,” he says.
Olmos recalls that Bitcoin halving and scheduled scarcity of digital asset make a difference against other cryptoactives. “The technical condition of the lower Bitcoin production based on the reward that decreases over time guarantees a growing trend,” he says.
Thus, although the fall below $ 115,000 confirms the risk that the firm Glassnode anticipates, the market now faces a turning point, debating between sustaining themselves at the current levels or aimed at a greater contraction. However, the nature of BTC is upward and, at times like this, it would seem convenient to see it rather from a retrospective plane before one in real time.