The increase in monetary printing will drive Bitcoin (BTC) to new heights.
Trump needs to print money to achieve his political objectives, says Hayes.
The debate for the future price of Bitcoin (BTC) does not cease. Now, there are estimates that the digital currency could exceed USD 3 million after three years, promoted by, among other things, the American economic situation and its impact on large investors.
According to him model Prepared by Arthur Hayes, financial and co -founder analyst of Exchange Bitmex, BTC could reach 3.4 million dollars in 2028. It is a projection that starts from the assumption that the increase in the monetary printing of the United States will boost the digital currency.
Hayes himself, however, acknowledges that he sees with skepticism that the price of Bitcoin reaches that level, although he estimates that the trend will be clearly bullish, reaching quantious contributions than the current one. This is stated:
Do I think Bitcoin will rise to USD 3.4 million by 2028? No, but I think the number will be remarkably taller than the USD 115,000 to those you quote today. My goal is to obtain the correct direction of the trip and be sure that I am betting on the horse faster.
Arthur Hayes, financial and co -founder analyst for Exchange Bitmex.
According to the analyst, the approach starts from a scenario in which Donald Trump’s government would resort to a strong monetary expansion to meet political objectives. Hayes points out that the Treasury Department must issue a new debt to cover the maturities and finance an estimated deficit in 2 billion dollars per year until 2028. The calculation of the specialist throws an issue of 15.32 billion dollars in that period.
Hayes recalled that, during the Covid-19 Pandemia, the Federal Reserve (FED) bought 40% of the debt issued. Now, it projects that this proportion could exceed 50% in 3 years, since less foreign central banks would be willing to acquire treasure bonds.
In parallel, he anticipates that commercial bank credit could expand in more than 7.5 billion dollars, taking as reference the increase of 2.5 billion observed in the previous quantitative expansion cycle.
The Hayes model thus adds more than 15 billion dollars in credit growth and, if the relationship observed during COVID-19 is applied, when there was an increase of 0.19% in the price of Bitcoin for each dollar created credit; The value of BTC in 2028 would be around 3.4 million dollars, according to the specialist.
A questionable scenario
The Hayes prognosis has generated debate. The Spanish financial analyst Javier Espasa Peribáñez explains to cryptootics that Bitcoin is unlikely to reach 3 million in 2028. However, he considers that there are factors that, ultimately, “could push the price to record levels.”
These factors include prolonged expansive monetary policies that devalue the FÍAT coins, BTC institutional purchases through ETF, the halving that will reduce the issuance of new currencies and a financial crisis that deteriorates confidence in the traditional monetary system.
To these elements is added the regulation in the United States, which is also a key factor, in the words of Espasa, since it enables the issuance of Stablecoins backed by public debt.
“This would allow Treasury to diversify the placement of global debt without depending both on China and Japan,” says the specialist, thus coinciding with the professional trader Willy Woo, who believes that Tether Limited, the USDT issuing company (the largest stablecoin in the market), will become the largest American debt buyer when BTC reaches one million dollars.
With this scenario, The Espasa analyst considers a rank close to the million dollars per BTC around 2028 more realisticin a context of still intermediate retail adoption. For the next cycle, between 2028 and 2032, it provides higher prices with the consolidation of that adoption.
Although, as seen in the following graph, it is a very long way to travel, which would also require a multiplicity of converge factors, as Espasa states.
Other millionaire predictions
The possibility of a bitcoin above one million dollars has already been raised by other referents in the sector. Cathie Wood, executive director of Ark Invest, said that her BTC projection in 1 million by 2030 has fallen short and now expects that the price exceeds “widely” that figure.
Along the same lines, Michael Saylor, president of Strategy (formerly Microstrategy), has pointed out that the bearish scenario known as “crypto -winter” was behind. According to the entrepreneur, the digital currency has the natural destination to approach one million dollars, Cryptoics reported.
Estimates on Bitcoin’s future diverge in figures, but coincide in an expectation of growth in the next decade. In general, The Hayes approach provides an extreme reference in the projections rangewhile other specialists place a more cautious scenario.
However, the analysis reflects how the relationship between monetary expansion and digital assets continues to be the nucleus of Bitcoin’s future.