“Bitcoin has already reached maturity,” says Hamlin.
The digital currency would be in the process of consolidating its most recent bullish impulse.
In a context of growing institutional interest and global economic dynamics, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) could be on the edge of an ascent to unprecedented levels.
Jason Hamlin, founder of the Financial Investment Firm, Nicoya Research, holds that The digital currency is ready to reach $ 150,000 by the end of 2025with a potential to reach 200,000 dollars in the first quarter of 2026.
Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase after his recent rebound, but he has not yet touched the roof of the trend channel, according to Hamlin.
“This last bullish movement is much lower in percentage terms than the previous bullish waves, so I suspect that we will probably see another significant upward movement in the short term,” explains the analyst.
With an analysis based on market trends and macroeconomic factors, The specialist details five reasons that could promote this upward movementwhile Bitcoin consolidates his position as a mature asset in the global financial panorama.
The decline of the impact of halving
The first factor Hamlin stands out is halving. As indicated by cryptopedia, cryptootic educational section, it is the mechanism by which in half reduces the amount of bitcoin received by the miners as a reward for their work. In 2024, The reward went from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, which reduced the annual inflation of 1.67 % to 0.83 %.
However, this impact is much smaller compared to the Halving of 2016, which cut inflation from 8.8 % to 4.4 %. «It is less likely that the Halving of 4 years is a key factor for the price of Bitcoin in the future. This means that predicting a maximum based on this cycle will be much less precise than in the past, ”says Hamlin.
This lesser relevance of the cycle suggests that Other factors, such as macroeconomic, are taking the lead in the impulse of the digital currency.
Global liquidity as a key engine
Secondly, Hamlin points out the expansion of global liquidity as a critical driver. “The previous halving cycles coincided with periods of greater global liquidity, which has a greater correlation with the fluctuation of the price of Bitcoin,” he says.
“Global liquidity” is a concept used to determine how much money is available in the world economy. It refers to the volume of monetary mass (M2), a measure of the total number of currencies in the economy. Includes cash, current deposits, savings deposits, money market accounts, retail investment funds and term lower than $ 100,000.
With a 90 % of the price variations linked to global liquidity, which reached records in Septemberthe analyst anticipates uploads in the coming months.
Excess capital tends to flow to scarce assets such as Bitcoin, which has a fixed supply of 21 million currencies, which reinforces its appeal in high liquidity times. In fact, BTC Alcista markets have coincided with the rapid expansion of world liquidity.
The rise of the stablcoins
The third pillar of Hamlin’s analysis is the 95% correlation between Stablecoins issuance and Bitcoin’s price. These cryptocurrencies linked to assets such as the dollar (for example, USDT or USDC) act as a bridge between money Fíat and Bitcoin.
When new stablecoins are generated, they reflect a capital entrance to the market. Its growing adoption in global economies, from payments to reserves, amplifies this flow, backed by its high liquidity. For example, Binance, the world’s largest exchange, reported Stablecoins reserves for 45,000 million dollars so far this year, a record that shows this trend.
According to data Defillama, The Global Offer of Stablecoins reached a record of 294,000 million dollarswhich represents a 70% increase in the last year.
“The high correlation between the offer of Stablecoins and the price of Bitcoin, added to its rapid growth, makes it worth monitoring its supply metric,” Hamlin explains. Stablecoins facilitate trading in volatile markets, channeling capital towards Bitcoin as the main reserve of value.
Institutional demand on the rise
The fourth factor is the growing institutional interest. Bitcoin Bag) funds (ETF) in the United States They have accumulated 1,317,663 BTC in less than two yearsabsorbing the entire new daily offer, according to Hamlin. “The ETFs, by themselves, buy more bitcoin than those that are produced or extracted daily,” he says.
In addition, the 100 public contribution companies with more BTC have a total of 1,032,627 digital currency units, led by Strategy, which accumulates 639,835 BTC from its initial investment in 2020, as can be seen in the following image.
To this are added 13 countries, including the United States and El Salvador, with 519,106 BTC in reservationsaccording Bitcoin Treasuries.
“If the growth of corporations that have Bitcoin continues, they will quickly absorb a large percentage of the total offer,” Hamlin warns.
Technical indicators support optimism
Finally, Hamlin points to Colin Talks Crypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index (CBBI), an index that Combine metrics such as the Pi Cycle Top, the multiple of Puelll and the Rhodl ratio to measure the bullish impulse.
This compound indicator evaluates the momentum BTC bullor through technical analysis and ON-CHAIN. These tools help identify whether the market is overheated (near a peak) or undervalued (near a background), based on historical data of market cycles.
In previous cycles, This index consistently exceeded the range of 97 to 100, but in the current cycle it has only reached 83with a current value of 76, as seen in the graph.
“This suggests that there is likely to be more increases before the price of Bitcoin reaches its maximum,” he says.
For Hamlin, Bitcoin has reached maturity as an active, with less volatility (with respect to past cycles) and a solid institutional support that could take it to $ 1,000,000 in five years.
Complementary perspective
In relation to price projections, Juan José Benítez, president of the Paraguayan Chamber of Digital Assets Mining (Capamad), spoke with cryptootics and talked about how investments through ETFs, and especially Bitcoin’s treasury, boost the price of the digital currency.
Treasury “reinforce the fact that Bitcoin can be used as a reserve, causing in the long term the perception of risk to decrease, because if public companies keep it inside their balances it should be an asset considered confidence and this would help an escalation in the price of Bitcoin,” he says.
In his opinion, Bitcoin business adoption and Bitcoin cycles changed forever, “so he believes that” BTC will become between 150,000 and 250,000 dollars. “