Less accumulation suggests a more cautious offer, according to Glassnode.
If demand intensifies again, vulnerability is reduced.
The Bitcoin scenario (BTC) in September has lit the alarms of traders and analysts, as the data ON-CHAIN They offer signs of a cooling that, if it is maintained over time, could end up the upward market.
One of these signals is accumulation, whose tendency has been softened In the last month. This has been accompanied by a moderate conviction by the great investor cohorts, even When BTC has been maintained for more than 100 days above the USD 100,000 level.
In general, this smooth signal in accumulation is interpreted as a “cautious offer”, leaving the market “vulnerable to an excess supply unless the demand intensifies again”, according to the Glassnode analysis firm.
It is worth clarifying that Glassnode define “The accumulation trend score” as “an indicator that reflects the relative size of entities that accumulate actively on-chain in terms of their BTC holdings.”
In the following graph you can see how September is marked in red, which indicates that the accumulation score has been reduced and the great actors are not buying with such conviction:
An excess supply occurs when there is more bitcoin available to sell than buyers willing to acquire it at the current price. This generates bearish pressure, Because sellers must reduce their prices to find demand.
In general, a lower accumulation and greater willingness to sell by large holders leaves the exposed market. If demand does not grow at the same rate as the offer, The imbalance can be translated into price drops or in a prolonged phase of consolidation until the buying interest resumes strength.
“It’s not a global phenomenon”
Guillermo Fernandes, Venezuelan investor of Bitcoin, businessman and cryptocurrency consultant, dissent from the vision of Glassnode. For him, there is no such vulnerability of excess supply in BTC. In his opinion, this currency is not subject to “market gaps in orders books at a general level.” He believes that “specific cases” can occur, in which the market dissociates due to lack of liquidity.
“But it is not a global phenomenon,” Fernandes explains to Cryptonoticias, and adds that investors are effectively moderate, but not for disinterest, but because, possibly, the clarity law in the United States is waiting for approval, legislation that will promptly define the regulatory framework of the BTC market and cryptocurrencies.
What is indicated by Fernandes makes sense if it is taken into account that Capital input flows to Bitcoin and cryptocurrency exchanges are decreasingwhich suggests a change of feeling in the market.
The 7 -day mobile average of the total tickets in all exchanges shows a continuous decrease, according to data of Cryptoquant. In cash markets, high ticket levels usually anticipate sales pressure. In the derivatives, the scenario is different: Increase in entries can lead to volatility, as they are used for both long and short positions.
In that order of ideas, the recent decrease in this metric may reflect a greater disposition to maintain BTC out of the exchanges, reducing the immediate offer, which is usually beneficial for the price of digital asset.
In the following graph that decrease can be better appreciated:
The amount of Bitcoin must be taken into account in the Exchange fell to its lowest level for 7 years, with a total of 2.4 million BTC accumulated in those exchange platforms.
A bullish quarter
Considering the above, the discussion arises to know if the Bitcoin market reached its roof. There are those who think so, as the TrainingView community analyst known as Excavo. For him, now arrive The Bitcoin bearish market, so it believes that the price of the currency will fall to the USD 90,000 in the weeks to come.
However, other specialists, such as Carter Jordan, They point that the trend of the digital currency “is biased towards the bullish oscillation.” This could extend until the end of the year, considering that, Historically, BTC (and its market) have had good performances in the fourth quarter since 2020.
With the exception of 2022-when FTX’s collapse triggered the bearish market-each quarter quarter from the Covid-19 pandemic has registered yields greater than 20%, with three of those periods exceeding 50%.
For example, in 2020, the fourth quarter closed with a performance of 119.3%. In 2021, it was 21.4%. In 2022, down, it was -15.9%. Then, in 2023 and 2024, the closures were positive, 55% and 54.7%, respectively. This can be seen in the graph Hashdex:
With an environment of increasing institutional interest and macroeconomic factors at stake, the expectation is that 2025 can repeat that trend, according to that organization.
This vision coincides with the Jason Hamlin, founder of Nicoya Research, who argues that Bitcoin could reach $ 150,000 in late 2025 and approach the USD 200,000 in the first quarter of 2026. He argues that the digital currency is in the consolidation phase and “has not yet touched the roof of the trend channel”As Cryptonoticia reported.
Fernandes think similarly. The investor indicates that BTC’s demand will remain increasing and will have an effect on the price. In addition, it places the BTC price, based on prediction models, between USD 117,000 and USD 122,000 by the end of the year.
«I trust that Bitcoin will close the 2025 rise in relation to its starting point. I do not see normal scenarios where I would return to the USD 100,000. Above all, with the institutional adoption and regulatory clarity of the United States.
Guillermo Fernandes, BTC inverter and cryptocurrencies.
It is clear that reality reflects a market in transition and consolidation, where signs of vulnerability due to excess supply and expectations of a new impulse coexist. Thus, the interaction between accumulation, entries to the exchanges and the dynamics of institutional investment will mark the evolution of the price in the remainder of the year.