Since 2013, Bitcoin (BTC) had only 2 Octubres with negative returns.
There are those who believe that Bitcoin will mark new historical maximums in the 3rd quarter of the year.
October has historically been a favorable month for Bitcoin (BTC). Since 2013, the digital currency has only closed with losses twice during this month, which feeds the expectation that 2025 repeats positive behavior.
The data historical show that, in the last twelve years, 10 octubres closed green For BTC. The behavior has been so consistent that market jargon is known as “UPTOBER” (Word game, in English, which combines the terms “above” and “October”).
This statistic reinforces the narrative that the digital currency It usually finds a window in this month to consolidate bullish trends.
The following graph, provided by Coinglass, shows the monthly returns that Bitcoin has had, month by month, since 2013:
The Venezuelan analyst, and expert in the BTC P2P trading and cryptocurrencies, Daniel Andrés Peláez, considers this aspect as a central argument. He believes that, definitely, October “It will be a positive month” for Bitcoin and the entire market.
Peláez explains to cryptootics that October will close 5% above what is registered in September. That is, with prices between USD 115,000 and USD 120,000 for the tenth month of this 2025.
“If we have already come with an interesting impulse, with a practically positive September, I consider that Bitcoin still has one more season left for this fourth quarter,” he says.
For its part, the financial analyst specialized in the technical field of the market, Emanuel Juárez, coincides with the vision of Peláez, but emphasizes that it is not enough to observe historical statistics, but also the technical levels that define the trend.
«My expectations for October are positive. While Bitcoin remains above the support in 107,221 dollars, the long -term trend remains intact, ”Juarez tells this informative medium.
Bitcoin’s internal structure has aligned with macroeconomy, and was upwards, which has allowed him to exceed $ 113,895 as of September 29. The next step would be to break the resistance of $ 117,875, which would open the way to a new historical maximum.
Emanuel Juárez, financial technical analyst.
Juarez shared with cryptootics a technical graphic of the price of Bitcoin in which he establishes his estimates for the quote of the digital asset at maximum cycle, as well as the potential correction you will experience when the bearish market arrives:
September correction and expected rebound
September performance serves as an immediate reference. According to the Spanish financial analyst Javier Espasa Peribáñez, the recent volatility in BTC, which led to the field of the USD 109,000, was a necessary movement to release pressure in the market.
As you see, taking into account that correction, the positive performance it has had in September, and that the liquidity rates continue to increase, “we could see Bitcoin reaching 125,000 or 130,000 dollars” in October.
Espasa, Master in cryptocurrencies and author, underlines this newspaper that October brings additional and bullish factors for the market. This is the possible authorization of new funds quoted in the Stock Exchange (ETF) and an eventual positive decision of the Federal Reserve (FED) of the United States, related to a new cut to interest rates.
For him, the sum of these variables will create the stage for BTC to reach a new historical maximum In the coming weeks.
Juarez coincides with Espasa’s vision. Considers that If “surprises” do not arise from the United States They affect market confidence, “this October should be bullish or, in the worst case, lateral.”
“Even, in the face of risks linked to monetary policy in the US, Bitcoin could benefit from its value reserve role, as is the case with gold,” he says.
The latter is meaningless with what is expressed by the largest bank in Germany, the Deutsche Bank, which considers that Bitcoin will join within the reserves of the world’s central banks as long as it follows the steps of gold, as it has done so far.
New historical maximums on the horizon
In the debate on whether BTC will mark new historical maximums before the end of the year, specialists seem to coincide. Peláez argues: “I confirm my positive forecast. I consider that there will definitely be a new historical peak that will allow us to close Bitcoin above 124,000, perhaps up to 150,000.”
Espasa also projects it, although with a higher range: “I think it could reach its ATH in this cycle, which will be around 170,000 or 180,000 dollars.”
Both visions go hand in hand with that of Juan Rodríguez, Colombian analyst and driver of the YouTube channel «Bitcoin and Cryptos», who assures that the 2025 AT will arrive during the last quarter of this year. “The 130,000 will arrive in 2025 from my perspective,” he explains, And he maintains that October will open the way to a bullish consolidation phase.
For him, the expectation for the fourth quarter is positive for BTC, and that, in his position, Wait a 20% yield for bitcoin in the fourth quarterwhich “would allow to see the historical maximum of $ 130,000 in 2025.”
The businessman and investor Mike Novogratz offers a more ambitious vision. He argued that BTC could reach $ 200,000 If the Fed maintains its monetary flexibility policy.
For Novogratz, the direct relationship between low interest rates, greater liquidity and increased appetite for risk assets Create a fertile terrain for the digital currency to continue climbing during the fourth quarter.
This type of expectations of great figures in the sector contributes to strengthening the narrative that Bitcoin still has space to groweven after having reached high historical maximums in previous cycles.
In general, the combination of statistical, technical and macroeconomic factors leads analysts to agree that BTC could consolidate a new historical maximum in the last quarter of 2025. Thus, October is outlined as a month of high positive and bullish expectation, where Bitcoin could not only confirm its green trend, but also open the door at a closing of the year in prices never seen before.