Bitcoin’s performance (BTC) for the last quarter of 2025 is loaded with bullish expectation. For the Grayscale investment firm, everything indicates that the digital currency will mark new maximums before the end of the year.
The entity, which is the station of funds listed on the stock market (ETF) linked to the price of Bitcoin, Believe that the combination of greater regulatory clarity in the United States, together with the demand for scarce digital assets in an environment of macroeconomic imbalances, It will be what this bullish trend holds.
Macroeconomic imbalances are creating demand for scarce digital assets and regulatory clarity is promoting institutional investment in blockchain technology. Until these factors change, market setbacks are likely to be temporary and, in our opinion, cryptocurrency markets could be on their way to new maximums.
Grasycale, investment firm.
Grayscale recalls that, in the last bitcoin bullish cycle, prices touched their maximum in November 2021 and the floor in November 2022. Almost three years later, some market participants talk about a “stop” in the valuations, with ceilings of up to USD 130,000 or more for each BTC.
The firm argues that cycles are not exhausted for a time, but for a change of foundations. “Economist Rudi Dornbusch said that economic expansions do not die of old age, but are killed by the Federal Reserve,” he cites the analysis of Grayscale, referring to the fact that It is monetary hardening that can lead to recessions.
Remembering, the United States Federal Reserve (Fed) reduced interest rates in September and anticipated more cuts before the end of the year. For Grayscale, this scenario is positive because the lowest rates “reduce the opportunity cost of maintaining raw materials that do not accrue interests such as bitcoin and can support the appetite for the risk of investors.”
Even so, he acknowledges that there are risks: “An unexpected turn of the fed of rates to increases should also be considered a risk scenario for cryptocurrency assessments.”
Regulatory keys
The regulatory factor is indicated by Grayscale as a central one for the institutional impulse. They recall that, in September, the Bag and Securities Commission (SEC) approved generic price standards for cryptocurrency ETF.
This decision provides a simplified approval process so that exchanges include Cryptocurrencies ETF, provided that underlying tokens fulfill certain technical criteria.
The firm anticipates that most active will qualify under these standards and that “investors can expect a significant increase in the amount of ETF of a single cryptoactive available in US exchanges.”
At the same time, the SEC has also approved the price and trade of Bitcoin options products. And have been presented initiatives to form the structure of the cryptocurrency market, with protections for developer developers of decentralized finance.
The document, presented by a dozen US legislators, was received with an opening for industry and adds to the bipartisan framework that the House of Representatives had already approved, that is, the Clarity Law.
“More cryptocurrency companies went over, including Figure Technologies (Figr) and Gemini (GEMI),” Grayscale details, and emphasizes that traditional institutions such as Blackrock and Nasdaq also announced initiatives on tokenized assets from this regulatory clarity in the United States.
Expectations for the fourth quarter
Colombian financial analyst Juan Rodríguez puts The focus on the historical behavior of the last quarter. This, remembering that, historically, The last quarter usually acts green for the price of Bitcoinwith an average yield of 79%.
Only in 2024 closed with a return greater than 47%, and in 2023 with a yield of 56%, as seen below:
Rodríguez, however, moderates the projections: «Would I expect these numbers for the last quarter? No, here I wait for half at least the above ».
“A yield for the price of Bitcoin in the last quarter of around 20%, because it would let us see the AH above $ 130,000 of 2025. That would be prudent or where I aim at.”
Juan Rodríguez, financial analyst.
The Venezuelan economist specialized in cryptocurrencies, Daniel Arráez, offers another vision: «What BTC will mark new historical maximums? That is something that will always happen, the issue is a matter of when.
“For me, Bitcoin is constantly marking historical maximums, maybe not only the price, but in nodes, in technologies, in countries that adopt it, in institutions that adopt it, in news that they have,” says Arráez in dialogue with cryptonotic.
On price levels, the economist underlines the influence of the dollar: “If the dollar loses strength in international markets as it has been doing in recent years, Bitcoin can shoot a lot,” he says.
Only in 2025, the US dollar has lost its value by 10% compared to other national currencies, such as the euro and yuan. In fact, the first half of this year has been the worst registered since 1973 for the green ticket.
In that order of ideas, for economist Arráez, it is feasible to believe that this year Bitcoin gets to negotiate over USD 200,000.
‘To The Moon’?
The above reveals something clear: the bulls are loose and Bitcoin has a green meadow to travel before ‘Sounds the cannon‘, although, of course, the fundamental risks remain on the stalking.
It must be taken into account that, recently, an indicator was disclosed that, far from favoring the upward stage, puts it in expectation. This is that PCE inflation, which measures the change in the consumption expenses of US households, reported an annual rate close to 3.8%, which reflects that inflation remains high.
In general, it is a negative level for a monetary flexibility policy. This, because it indicates that prices are not going down quickly enough to justify lowering interest rates without risk of inflation.
This scenario also impacts Bitcoin: when the Fed is forced to keep high rates more time, the cost of ordering money is increased and the appetite is reduced by more risky investments.
Therefore, High PCE inflation can press Bitcoin down by making its position less attractive to more “safe” instruments in that monetary environment.
However, the expectation is maintained until October 29, when it will be known if the Fed will continue to cut interest rates or not, and if, consequently, the last Bitcoin Alcista Rally will take place.