Bitcoin (BTC) starts this October 1 a period that historically has been favorable for its price. Since 2013, the digital currency has registered ten positive closures in this month and only two negatives, in 2014 and 2018.
This statistic has led to the market to know it as “UPTOBER“(Word game in English that combines the words” above “and” October “), in reference to its upward trend at this stage of the year.
The following graph, provided by the Coinglass platform, shows what the Bitcoin monthly return since 2013:
September 2025 was a month with high volatility episodes. In the last week of the month, the price fell below $ 110,000 due to movements of large holders to exchanges.
However, in the final days of the month there were days of positive net income in the Bitcoin ETFs in the United States and a new record in the circulation of stablcoins, signs interpreted as an increase in liquidity available in the ecosystem.
Analysts consulted by cryptooticias indicated that October historical behavior reinforces bullish expectations. The Venezuelan trader Daniel Andrés Peláez considers that the price could be between $ 115,000 and $ 120,000 at the end of the month, while the technical analyst Emanuel Juárez points out that, provided that the support of 107,221 dollars is maintained, the long -term trend remains positive.
The macroeconomic context will also influence Bitcoin’s performance. The United States Federal Reserve (Fed) cut in September its interest rate at 25 basic points, and the market expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to announce a new cut in its October 29 and 30 meeting. A measure of that type would reduce the cost of money and increase liquidity, which usually favor the demand for scarce assets such as BTC.
However, not all of San Optimistic. Signatures such as Glassnode have described a pattern of “Buy the rumor, sells the news” around Fed decisions, which could limit the immediate positive effects.
Despite these caution signs, the general background remains optimistic. The offer of stablocoins at maximum, entries in regulated financial products and the historical trajectory of October configure a scenario in which Bitcoin is again in the center of attention.
According to Javier Espasa, a specialist in financial markets, the price of Bitcoin could reach between $ 125,000 and $ 130,000 in the coming weeks, while other more ambitious forecasts, project figures close to $ 200,000 in this cycle.
With these elements, The start of October concentrates the attention of the Bitcoin market and cryptocurrencies. The combination of historical statistics, liquidity signs and monetary policy decisions in the United States will mark Bitcoin’s course at the start of the fourth and last quarter of 2025.