In Polymarket, a decentralized betting platform, users mostly bet on a prompt resolution of the partial closure of the United States government, with 69% of the volume of money by predicting that operations will resume in 15 days.
This expectation reflects the confidence that Congress will achieve a budget agreement before the economic impact is aggravated.
On the other hand, a 23% of bets They suggest that the stoppage will extend between October 10 and 14, Lor that indicates some caution among the participants about the ability of legislators to negotiate quickly.
Likewise, 8% bet on an earlier reopening, between October 6 and 9, showing an optimistic minority that awaits an almost immediate resolution, such as observing in the following image.
The most relevant historical precedent It is the closure of 35 days between December 2018 and January 2019, the longest recorded in the countryduring Donald Trump’s first mandate.
The current closure began on October 1 due to the lack of agreement between Democrats and Republicans in Congress. The Democrats sought to maintain health subsidies, while the Republicans opposed and disagreed on the expenditure levels, which prevented the budget from approved before September 30.
As a result, Non -essential agencies suspended operations, affecting thousands of public employeesalthough critical services such as Medicare, Defense and the Army continue to function with previously assigned funds, as reported by cryptootics.
In this context, uncertainty has driven investors towards assets such as Bitcoin (BTC). Before closing, on September 30, the currency quoted at $ 111,000. After the paralysis, on October 1, its price rose to $ 119,000, and today, October 5, it reached a new historical maximum at $ 125,500, also driven by investment flows in the BTC ETFs.
If the closure is extended for 15 days, as the majority bet in Polymarket suggests, the price of Bitcoin could continue to rise. Prolonged uncertainty tends to strengthen the attractiveness of assets such as Bitcoin, perceived as safe shelters Faced with political and economic instability. However, a faster closure resolution could moderate this bullish impulse, since investors could return to traditional assets.