The Japanese investment firm XWIN Research projects that the price of ether (ETH), Ethereum’s cryptocurrency, could reach $10,000, considering it “the natural result of the liquidity cycle in the cryptocurrency market.”
This forecast is based on the expansion of the US M2 money supply, which reached a record of $22 trillionbenefiting bitcoin (BTC) with a 130% increase from 2022.
In contrast, ether only grew 15% in the same period, showing a liquidity lag that, according to the firmis close to correcting due to macroeconomic dynamics and on-chain data.
Besides, ETH reserves on exchanges have fallen 25% since 2022as seen in the graph, remaining at close to one million ether, which reduces the selling pressure.
In relation to this, it should be mentioned that net flows to exchanges are consistently negative, indicating that investors withdraw ether towards self-custody or staking contracts. The now positive Coinbase Premium Index reflects growing institutional interest in ETH, a pattern that preceded significant rallies in 2020 and 2021, suggesting bullish momentum.
Historically, Ethereum tends to lag behind bitcoin in early phases of monetary easing, but XWIN Research sees a change. When bitcoin dominance falls below 60%, capital rotates into other digital assets like ether. Currently, bitcoin dominance is 59.2%.
With global liquidity expanding and the structural exit of ETH from exchanges, The firm sees it feasible for ether to align with the growth of M2. Although on platforms like Polymarket the majority is betting that it will reach the 5,000 dollars for January 2026, as reported by CriptoNoticias, XWIN Research insists that its projection is not speculative, but a reflection of market dynamics.