As the Israel-Gaza ceasefire took effect and US President Donald Trump declared peace, Europe found itself on edge.
While prominent European leaders attended the summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt – where Trump’s 20-point peace plan was signed by most Arab and Muslim countries – they played a minimal role in the talks.
Experts said the faction wants to play a bigger role in shaping Gaza’s future and resolving the conflict. But, except for former British Prime Minister Tony Blair, no other names have been announced yet as members of the Trump-led so-called peace board.
Will Europe get involved beyond offering aid?
The EU has expressed its intention to provide funding for the reconstruction of Gaza, which initial estimates suggest will cost more than $50 billion.
“We will be an active force within the Palestinian Donors Group,” EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen posted on Twitter.
“And we will provide EU funding for the reconstruction of Gaza.”
European Council President Antonio Costa represented the bloc in Egypt. He took the opportunity to underline his willingness to move forward with aid, saying the EU is “ready to contribute” to the next steps in Trump’s plan for temporary transitional rule by a technical, apolitical Palestinian Committee.
Europe is already the largest donor to the Palestinian Authority (PA), which rules the West Bank, as well as aiding the reconstruction of Gaza, Costa also said the EU would contribute to security. Trump’s plan envisages establishing an International Stabilization Force (ISF), in coordination between the US, Arab and other international partners, which will be deployed to Gaza.
Will Europe send troops to Gaza under international pressure?
French President Emmanuel Macron has said that France is ready to contribute to the Temporary International Stabilization Force, which is expected to train and equip Palestinian security forces.
And yet many European nations would deliberate before committing to joining such a force.
Jean-Loup Saman, senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told DW that Europe “will also have to consider the role of other countries in the Arab and Muslim world in terms of troops.”
But there are also domestic factors involved. “I think it will be a very sensitive topic in Berlin,” he said. “France, meanwhile, is mired in a government crisis, making it difficult for Macron to make such a decision.”
In the meantime, the precise mandate of such an international stabilization force would need to be determined.
Hugh Lovett, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), said, “If the task of a foreign mission was to enforce the disarmament of Hamas against Hamas’s wishes, there would be no European contribution to it, full stop.”
He said the Europeans could contribute troops for surveillance purposes, similar to how they have been deployed along the Israel-Lebanon border.
Will Europeans join Trump’s peace board?
Reports suggest that Germany, France and the UK, known as the European Three (E3), would like to have a representative on the board.
But, till now no one has been invited. “There are a number of applicants,” U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff said at a press briefing in Egypt when Trump was asked if Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi would be included.
A senior former Israeli official, who spoke to DW on condition of anonymity, said Israel would object to accepting a French or British representative on the board. He said both countries unilaterally recognized the Palestinian state, a move that was not viewed well by Israel.
Italy, on the other hand, is seen as more pro-Israel and that would be acceptable, he said.
Saman, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute, told DW that if the Europeans want a seat at the table they will likely have to remove any threat of sanctions against Israel.
“I’m sure the Trump administration and the Israeli government will condition any European involvement on that.”
Will EU relations with Israel improve amid the ceasefire?
Israel’s envoy to the EU, Avi Nir-Feldclin, has signaled hope for a reset in EU-Israel relations.
in an interview with Politico, Europe, he said the time had come to “get over this small, inconvenient situation that we have right now and resume the good relations that we have.”
The EU had proposed suspending trade concessions to Israel and imposing sanctions on some of its ministers, in a bid to pressure the country to send more aid and end the military operation inside Gaza.
An EU spokesperson indicated that those proposals could be reviewed now that the ceasefire is in place, adding that a decision had not yet been made. “We’re not there yet,” she said.
For his part, Lovatt predicted that any talk of sanctioning Israel at the EU level is dead.
The ceasefire “discourages any action outside the scope of the Trump plan,” he said, adding that Europe would not want to anger Trump, not least because it wants his support to end the war in Ukraine.
A major disagreement remains between the US and Europe on the path to lasting peace in Gaza. The EU is one of the most vocal supporters of the two-state solution.
“Europeans were largely insulated from the US initiative and the key principle of Palestinian statehood remains a far more distant goal in the Trump approach than in the European approach,” Saman said.
Edited by: Jess Smee