Fertile soils, vast arable land, and a history of food empires and global markets helped Ukraine become known as the “breadbasket of the world.”
With 41.3 million hectares (102 million acres) of agricultural land, two-thirds of which is covered with so-called black soil – the world’s richest soil – the country produces high crop productivity with minimal inputs of fertilizer, irrigation, labor and heavy machinery.
Ukraine’s grain surplus fed the Russian Empire and later the Soviet Union, while after independence in 1991, the country became a major food supplier to the world, particularly the Middle East, North Africa, and Asia.
From Abundance to Stamina
According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, agriculture made up 41% of Ukraine’s export revenues in 2021, or $27.8 billion (€23.98 billion), so the war was devastating to both the domestic economy and global food security.
Moscow’s forces seized large tracts of arable land during a Russian naval blockade, missile attacks and mined waters halted almost all shipments through Ukraine’s primary export route, the Black Sea.
Export volumes fell by more than 90% in the first three months of 2022 compared to the previous year, driving up global food prices and deepening the hunger crisis in import-dependent countries.
Natalia Shpigotska, senior analyst at Kiev-based investment house Dragon Capital, said that before the invasion, Ukraine accounted for about 8% of global wheat exports, 13% of corn and 12% of barley exports. It also supplied 40–50% of the world’s sunflower oil.
“lower International crop prices surged to $400 due to uncertainty over crop supplies and commercial navigation prospects in the Black Sea [€345] per ton, which affected the affordability of basic foods around the world,” Shpigotska told DW.
Grain production for 2022/23 declined by 29% due to the invasion, with 22% of arable land remaining unsown due to Russian occupation, mines and labor shortages. However, looking back, USDA data shows that exports recovered rapidly.
Food became the front line in Russia’s war
The Kremlin was accused of weaponizing food security by deliberately targeting agricultural infrastructure. In the first two years of the conflict, more than 300 agricultural facilities were damaged by Russian attacks, and more than 500,000 tons of grain was stolen in 2022 alone.
It took until August that year for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to push back Russia’s Black Sea Fleet using naval drones and Western anti-ship missiles; the sinking of Moskva in April was a significant blow to the Kremlin. A year later, global crop prices stabilized near pre-war levels.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, launched in July 2022 by the United Nations and Türkiye, reopened three Ukrainian ports, making it possible to export 33 million tons of grain by July 2023.
The EU’s so-called Solidarity Lane, which uses rail, river (Danube) and road routes through Poland, Romania and Bulgaria, allowed about half of Ukraine’s grain exports to reach Europe, despite Russia’s blockade.
Together, these efforts restored Ukraine’s exports to approximately 64 million tonnes in 2023/24, recovering 75% of pre-war levels and stabilizing global food security.
“Before navigation through the Black Sea ports was fully restored, the EU Solidarity Lane provided a vital lifeline,” Shpigotska said. “However, due to infrastructure constraints and significantly higher transportation costs, overland routes were not able to completely replace seaborne exports.”
Trade flows returned, sustainability still unclear
More than three years after Russia’s invasion, Ukraine’s Ministry of Agricultural Policy and Food (MAPF) estimates grain and oilseed exports for the July 2024–June 2025 season at more than 60 million metric tons (66 million US tons), including 15 million tons of wheat, 25 million tons of corn, and 2.5 million tons of barley.
However, last month, Ukraine reported a 38% decline in agricultural exports compared to the same month in 2024, partly as a result of Russia’s intensified attacks on Black Sea ports. According to the Ukrainian Grain Association, transfers through Ukraine’s Odessa port decreased by nearly a third.
The forecast for the entire 2025/26 season is also less optimistic, with Ukraine’s grain crop forecast to decline 10% to around 51 million tonnes due to ongoing war disruptions, indicating continued weaknesses.
As the world celebrates World Food Day on October 16 – the United Nations’ initiative to combat global hunger – Ukraine’s contribution remains vital. The country’s grain is a lifeline for food-insecure areas, filling deficiencies that no one else can match on a scale.
For example, the World Food Program ordered 80% of its grain from Ukraine to help feed nearly 400 million people in war-torn Yemen and Ethiopia in 2023.
Ukraine is struggling with many pressures
Apart from the war, which has cost Ukraine more than $80 billion, many obstacles remain. Nearly 20% of Ukraine’s population, approximately 7.3 million people, remains food insecure.
The estimated $55.5 billion cost to rebuild Ukraine’s agricultural infrastructure as part of broader reconstruction efforts is largely underfunded. Land prices, especially agricultural land prices, have increased rapidly in the last two years.
EU import caps on some Ukrainian agricultural products, starting in 2024, have raised tensions between Kiev and EU neighbors Poland, Slovakia and Hungary, who have complained about market oversupply and competition with local farmers.
Farmers risk their lives
The ongoing threat to farm workers remains real. wall street journal More than a dozen farm workers have been killed and more than 40 wounded in Ukraine’s Kherson region alone since the war began, the WSJ reported last month, citing government figures.
They included farmer Oleksandr Hordienko, who in July said he had shot down more than 80 Russian drones with tracking equipment and a rifle he bought himself. Last month, Hordienko was killed in a Russian drone strike on his vehicle, the WSJ said.
“Ukrainian farmers face landmines, destroyed irrigation systems and frequent drone and missile attacks in border areas,” Shpigotska told DW. “Yet, they ensure domestic food security and supply grains, oils and proteins to global markets, defying extraordinary odds.”
Climate change is also a big threat. Ukraine’s grain production is projected to be threatened by rising temperatures and more frequent droughts. And since much of Ukraine’s agricultural land is still in Russian hands, Shpigotska warned it could remain out of operation for many years.
“Lasting peace and demining efforts will be necessary to bring this agricultural land back to farming,” he said.
While Ukraine’s breadbasket label persists despite many challenges, only global support in finding a practical peace agreement and promoting trade can secure its harvest and feed millions of people around the world.
Edited by: Uwe Hessler