The increase in trade tensions between financial powers brings panic to the markets.
At the end of the month, the US FED will likely cut interest rates.
On Friday, October 10, the cryptocurrency market experienced an earthquake. Bitcoin (BTC) fell sharply from $122,000 to touch $103,000, amid rising trade tensions between the United States and China. Shortly after, the price rebounded towards $110,000, but the impact left its mark.
Some analysts point to coordinated moves in large futures positions, suggesting signs of market manipulation in the midst of general panic.
The episode coincided with exchanged statements between both economic powers about new tariffs and possible retaliation. The uncertainty moved to the main stock indices, that recorded massive liquidations. In parallel, the cryptocurrency market liquidated nearly $19.4 billion in futures contracts.
All this raises questions: Was it canceled uptober for bitcoin? Will this be a new exception in the history of positive BTC returns in the tenth month of the year? Three analysts specialized in the sector shared their opinions with CriptoNoticias.
Before continuing, we must define what “uptober” is. This is a word that is born from the combination of “up” and “october”, and is assigned to the tenth month of each year since, historically, it has been positive for BTC. In general, this month yields returns of 20% on averagebeing, commonly, a green month for the market.
Uptober is over
Emanuel Juárez, Argentine technical analyst, is blunt: «I do believe that, for the moment, the uptober of bitcoin was cancelled. He explains that the current month has become one of high volatility, driven by the escalation of the trade conflict.
Juárez indicates that Bitcoin’s behavior this month has not been like that of a haven of valueunlike gold. In his opinion, “this shows that bitcoin has not yet managed to fully consolidate itself under that category.”
“Its behavior remains linked to general market sentiment and global liquidity levels,” he adds.
His words gain resonance when considering that the market crash on Friday, October 10 had no implication on the price of gold. In fact, the precious metal opened this week at all-time highstrading above USD 4,100 for the first time.
From a technical point of view, Juárez maintains that the recent fall of bitcoin modified part of the previous bullish structure. Therefore, he considers that, if the price of the asset fails to exceed $124,180, “the probabilities of a bearish continuation remain high, with a first target around $97,500.”
“Any rebound in the coming days could simply be a correction within that downward trend,” continued Juárez, who added that the situation of the US government shutdown and the consequent lack of macroeconomic data that the Federal Reserve will face for this reason, They add uncertainty to the market.
He believes that while an interest rate cut is expected in the US later this month, which could favor bitcoin, “in the current context it could have a mixed effect: momentarily relieving pressure, but also reflecting a weaker economic environment,” he warned.
“A rate cut could generate temporary relief, but not necessarily a sustained boost if investors perceive a deeper economic deterioration,” he explained to CriptoNoticias.
Negative seasonality
Similar to Juárez is the opinion of Alberto Cárdenas, a Venezuelan professional trader and financial analyst. He states that the uptober of bitcoin has already been canceled and, in fact, negative seasonality is brewing for BTC in the short term.
“I think that after last week’s event, October probably will not close positively and we will not reach new highs,” explained the analyst, who regrets: “there really was damage in the market and probably yes, the uptober for bitcoin.
Cárdenas believes that November could be a month of rebounds“as long as market conditions allow it.” Although he warns that, in the middle of October, “we are at the peak of seasonality of the four-year cycle, so there is a risk that the cycle maximums have been reached.”
“There is room, there is always room for new increases, but we are closer to a bear market,” he emphasizes in dialogue with this news outlet, while predicting “adjustments and declines” from now until the first half of 2026.
The specialist refers to the traditional bitcoin market cycle, in which the scenario usually occurs where bitcoin reaches new all-time highs. before diving into a bear market. which generally lasts for a matter of one year.
Of course, in the midst of these falls there are always rebounds, but I believe that the hype that there was of highs around $150,000 or $200,000 per bitcoin is going to be difficult to materialize, unless there is an important catalyst.
Alberto Cárdenas, trader and financial analyst.
The specialist also rules out that in October there will be a cut in the interest ratesas planned, due to the United States government shutdown. For him, It is more likely that said cut will be ordered in Novemberwhich will generate the price rebounds that it predicts.
«There will be no ATH in the short term»
Julio Moreno, head of analysis and research at the analysis firm on-chain CryptoQuant warns of bearish continuations. He claims that “bitcoin’s structural fundamentals weakened” after last Friday’s crash.
«Our Bull Score Index dropped to 20, indicating that we are in a ‘bearish’ phase at the moment. In addition, BTC spot demand has been contracting,” the Mexican analyst explains to CriptoNoticias.
Moreno points out that Current conditions make it difficult to see new all-time highs in the short term: «I don’t know if the uptoberbut for now it is difficult to reach new highs under these conditions.
In his perspective, lower demand in spot markets reflects caution on the part of investors, who seem to retreat into more defensive positions in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.
An uncertain October
With major technical indicators showing mixed signals, The bitcoin market faces an uncertain scenario.
Thus, the behavior of the coming days will be conditioned by the macroeconomic news and by the tone adopted by the Federal Reserve at its next meeting.
In any case, the bearish sentiment is already settling in the market, and everything seems to point to the highs they have already been reached. In other words, “Winter is coming«. Yes, at Game of Thrones.