The Trump administration is waging a war of sorts against Venezuelan drug gangs and has authorized the CIA to conduct covert operations inside the country: The revelation comes from Donald Trump himself, who confirmed this week that he had given his foreign intelligence service permission to conduct operations inside another country. This was quite an unusual confession – these orders usually closely guard state secrets.
Given the long and checked history of US interference in Latin American politics, it gave Venezuelan dictator Nicolas Maduro an opportunity to accuse Trump of attempting regime change.
Trump has maintained a special interest in Venezuela compared to most other Latin American countries.
While the US President has only shown his strength on trade issues with other countries in the region during his 2024 election campaign and second presidency, he has also criminalized Venezuelan migrants, called for mass deportations of them back to their homeland, and described the activities of Venezuelan gangs and drug cartels.
Since then, Trump’s complaints have also focused on Maduro himself. The US President and his officials have repeatedly linked Maduro directly to criminal groups. In August, the US increased the reward for information leading to Maduro’s arrest to $50 million (about €43 million).
The situation worsened in September when the US launched naval strikes against alleged drug smuggling boats in the Caribbean. In early October, Trump announced that the US was in a “non-international armed conflict” with drug cartels.
So far, at least 27 people have been killed in six attacks on ships in the Caribbean. The Trump administration now labels cartel activity a “narco-terrorist” threat.
A long, checkered history in Latin America
Trump’s comments confirming CIA activity in Venezuela have revived memories of the legacy of America’s 20th century involvement in the region.
For decades, the US intervened in Latin American politics, attempting to shape friendly regimes through coups, assassinations, and invasions.
The CIA itself supported coups against the Guatemalan government in 1954 and the Brazilian government in 1964, and helped promote the conditions that led to the overthrow of the Chilean government of Salvador Allende in 1973.
Is history repeating itself?
Notably unsuccessful US attempts at regime change included the disastrous Bay of Pigs invasion of Cuba in 1961 and several attempts to assassinate former Cuban leader Fidel Castro.
The most recent high-profile intervention in the region was the 1989 invasion of Panama to remove Manuel Noriega and extradite him on drug trafficking charges. Now, more than 35 years after that intervention, it seems history is repeating itself.
However, experts say hinting at the return of US spies to Latin America could be a wrong move on Trump’s part.
“The CIA is one of the many instruments of American foreign policy,” says Carlos Pérez Ricart, an international relations expert at the Center for Economic Research and Teaching in Mexico. But “Acknowledging CIA involvement in Venezuela is damaging [Trump’s] The overall objective,” he told DW.
Back to the future in Latin America
Trump and his allies have expressed concern about the growing influence of powers like China and intervened directly to secure the Panama Canal earlier this year.
Trump has also been a vocal supporter of some personal allies and has used economics as a weapon. For example, he has threatened to cut aid to Argentina if President Javier Meili and his government lose in the upcoming elections, and has also imposed punitive tariffs on Brazil in response to the prosecution of former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.
Trump’s intervention in Venezuela could give him several options, among them the ability to remove from office the dictator who is widely acknowledged to have lost Venezuela’s most recent presidential election.
The self-styled dealmaker will also appeal to the President to address his objectives of dismantling drug cartels and cutting a deal for the return of Venezuelan migrants who have so far eluded him.
And there is economic opportunity. Venezuela is rich in resources – particularly in fossil fuels – and economically close to China, which Trump sees as the main obstacle to US global dominance.
Venezuela a ‘special case’
Former British ambassador to Cuba Paul Hare, who was previously assigned to Britain’s diplomatic mission in Venezuela, said Trump’s approach towards the Maduro regime was a “special case” rather than a sign of increased US interference in the region.
“Trump doesn’t want to go down in history as the president who created conflict,” Heyer, a lecturer in international relations at Boston University, told DW. “He wants to make some kind of deal [with Venezuela]”They’re obviously concerned with the immigration issue, the drug issue.”
Apart from supporting his personal allies, a return to widespread interference in Latin American politics is unlikely to be a priority for the US president in the remaining three years of his second and final term.
“I don’t think they have much interest in Latin America as a region,” Hair said. “I think there are a lot of voices that see this as an opportunity to topple Maduro and perhaps instigate change in Cuba, however that can be done.”
The pace of political change in Venezuela, which saw opposition leader María Corina Machado recently win the Nobel Peace Prize, may also be helped by the ongoing US intervention. But Hair also thinks Maduro can still find a way to hang on to power.
“I don’t think it’s unimaginable that Maduro could come [to Trump] And say, ‘Yes, we will make an agreement on deportation,’ or ‘If you agree to live separately, we will do things you like.’
Luis Garcia Casas contributed to this report