The price of gold per ounce exceeded $4,300, setting a new record.
BTC perceives a correction after reaching an all-time high last week.
The price of bitcoin (BTC) is going through a corrective period after having reached an all-time high last week near $126,000 (USD). Meanwhile, the ounce of gold today exceeded USD 4,300, reaching a new historical record, which renews expectations in the markets.
According to a report published by the cryptocurrency market research firm Delphi Digital by analyst Marcus, the behavior of the bitcoin/gold pair continues in a corrective phase, although within a greater bullish trend.
“My base case is that this is a typical pullback within an ongoing uptrend, not the start of a new bear market,” he wrote. According to historical patterns, expect bitcoin correction to complete sometime between late November and December.
Marcus added that the structure of this reduction “remains consistent with the setbacks of the last cycle.” As he explained, a simple trend framework to track changes between both assets is the 21-week and 9-week exponential moving average (EMA) crossover strategy:
“When the 21-week EMA crosses above the 9-week EMA, BTC tends to enter a sustained bearish phase relative to gold.
When the 9-week EMA crosses above the 21-week EMA again, it signals the beginning of a sustained bullish cycle,” he indicates.
Marcus highlighted that, in the historical records of the bitcoin/gold pair, “there have been eight downward crossings,” which large trend reversal movements have preceded.
Accordingly, “the risk case is if we see continued divergence beyond December, but the expected reversal window aligns perfectly with bitcoin’s strongest seasonal period,” express.
In tune, trader Alex Wacy commented that gold top equals bitcoin bottomaccording to the pattern it showed five years ago. «2020 proved it; 2025 is about to repeat it,” he exclaimed from his enthusiasm, in case the rise of the metal stops in a favorable context for BTC.
Wacy’s hypothesis is based on the idea that gold peaks tend to coincide with times when bitcoin hits bottom, suggesting a rotation of liquidity between both assets.
Greater liquidity would benefit bitcoin
On the other hand, analyst Ted Pillows offered a broader view of comparative analysis with the precious metal. In his opinion, the typical 4-year cycle of bitcoin is likely to no longer continue, given the new context of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve that could add liquidity.
“Always remember that it was never about a 4-year cycle, but about liquidity,” he said. The focus, according to Pillows, this in whether gold liquidity will shift to bitcoin towards the year 2026.
He clarified: “If people start seeing BTC as the best ‘safe haven’ now that gold seems overbought, then a run to $150,000 is very possible.” Otherwise, you see the currency on the verge of a bear market.
In the short term, the analyst Indian that bitcoin is struggling to regain support from USD 108,000 to 109,000which, as reported by CriptoNoticias, declined this week to USD 103,000, its lowest in four months.
If it recovers this floor, BTC could rise towards USD 112,000 in the coming days. But if the 108,000 level is not recovered, it will head towards the USD 100,000 region,” Pillows said based on the support-resistance it has had.
With gold at all-time highs and bitcoin in a correction phase, the safe haven market is going through a critical juncture. For many, the outcome of this divergence will determine the course of global assets towards the end of the year.