Bitcoin rises and gold collapses, what is happening in the market?

  • The plan includes using $300 billion of Russian reserves for Ukrainian reconstruction.

  • Bitcoin (BTC) fell below USD 110,000 but rebounded strongly above USD 113,000 on the same day.

The financial markets are experiencing a day of high volatility this Tuesday, October 21, marked by two apparently opposing narratives: a drastic collapse in precious metals and renewed optimism about the end of the war in Ukraine. In this context, bitcoin (BTC) managed to regain ground, showing resilience in the face of the panic that swept gold.

Gold posted its worst daily drop since 2013, with spot prices plunging as much as 6.3% in less than 24 hours. Silver had a similar fate, plunging 8.7%.

The following graph shows the price of gold so far in 2025:

Price per ounce of gold from January 1, 2025.Price per ounce of gold from January 1, 2025.
The price of an ounce of gold had a significant drop in the last day. Fountain: TradingView.

This sell-off was fueled by investors locking in profits following a historic rally that had left metals overvalued. As CriptoNoticias reported yesterday, This overvaluation of gold could cause a rotation of capital towards bitcoin.

I said a couple of days ago—that is, before this fall—Dan Deming, analyst at KKM Financial:

Gold’s outperformance compared to bitcoin has overweighted portfolios, setting up a rebalancing. Analysts expect flows to shift toward bitcoin because of its higher beta. Gold’s strength hints at an awakening of hard assets, while bitcoin continues its maturation from speculative vehicle to legitimate store of value.

Dan Deming, analyst at KKM Financial

The catalyst for this profit taking in gold appears to be a significant reduction in geopolitical risk. European nations, in collaboration with Ukraine, are preparing a 12-point proposal to end war with Russia. This plan seeks to freeze the conflict on its current battle lines, a stance actively promoted by US President Donald Trump.

The proposal, according to information revealed by Bloomberg, rejects Vladimir Putin’s demands to give up territory in exchange for peace. Instead, poses the return of deported children, exchange of prisoners, security guarantees for Ukraine and a fast track for its entry into the European Union. Sanctions on Russia would be lifted gradually, and its $300 billion in frozen reserves would only be returned if Moscow contributes to the reconstruction of Ukraine.

A “peace council” chaired by Trump would oversee implementation of the plan. The US president, who will soon meet Putin in Budapest, has urged both sides to “stop where they are.” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy stated that, although nothing is certain, “we have come closer to a possible end to the war.”

While gold, the traditional safe haven asset, collapsed on the prospect of peace, bitcoin demonstrated divergent behavior. The following graph shows the price of the digital currency so far in 2025:

Bitcoin price from January 1, 2025.Bitcoin price from January 1, 2025.
Bitcoin price since January 1, 2025. Source: TradingView.

Having fallen below $110,000 earlier in the day, bitcoin regained momentum and returned above the $113,000 mark.

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