News that a highly anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin has been put on hold will provide some relief to Ukraine’s EU allies, who were nervous about the prospect of hosting the bloc’s most Russia-friendly member for talks on the future of Europe’s security.
Key summits in Brussels and London this weekend could now test Europe’s ability to deliver results as it tries to unlock new financial support for Kiev and persuade Trump to put more pressure on Moscow.
The leaders of Ukraine, Britain, Germany, France, Italy, Poland, Finland, Denmark, Spain, Sweden and top EU officials said, “Russia’s containment strategy has repeatedly shown that Ukraine is the only party that is serious about peace. We can all see that Putin is choosing violence and destruction.” Wrote in a statement on Tuesday.
The leaders said, “We must increase pressure on Russia’s economy and its defense industry until Putin is ready to make peace. We are developing measures to harness the full value of Russia’s stable sovereign assets so that Ukraine has the resources it needs.”
‘No room for war criminals in Europe?’
EU states often insist that Europe should have a seat at the table for negotiations over Ukraine’s future, but you can bet that they weren’t counting on that table being in Budapest.
After all, if the meetings ever go ahead, they would be the first time Putin has set foot on EU soil since his full-scale invasion of Ukraine – and since the International Criminal Court indicted him for suspected war crimes.
“The only place for Putin in Europe is in The Hague – at the tribunal. Not in any of our capitals,” Lithuania’s top diplomat Kestutis Budrys told reporters in Luxembourg on Monday. “There is no place for war criminals in Europe,” he said.
Ireland’s Simon Harris said the planned meeting was “provocative”, but stressed that efforts towards peace were welcome – while France’s foreign minister said Putin’s presence on EU soil “makes sense only if it leads to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire.”
However, Hungary is celebrating its role as hopeful host. Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, citing his “pro-peace” stance, wrote on Twitter that his country is the “only suitable” place in Europe for negotiations on the future of Ukraine.
But Budapest’s habit of delaying and weakening EU sanctions on Russia and protests against the bloc’s support for Ukraine have led political scientist Reinhard Heinisch to a different conclusion on Hungary’s stance.
“Many in the EU regard Orbán as a kind of Trojan horse for Russian interests,” Heinisch, the Hamburg-based professor, told DW earlier this year, when other locations for future peace talks — from Switzerland to Saudi Arabia — were being discussed.
Can Putin be arrested on EU soil?
Under international law, Hungary is still technically obliged to arrest Vladimir Putin if he ever comes to the country. Although Budapest announced it was leaving the International Criminal Court in June, the rules still apply on paper.
“States still have obligations for a year after leaving, including arresting individuals under arrest warrants,” Matthias Holvoet, lecturer in international criminal law at the University of Amsterdam, told DW.
But Holvoet says there’s no real chance of that happening. In fact, Hungary has already flouted ICC rules this year by hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in defiance of the warrant for his arrest.
Hungary would follow a long line of other states that have ignored the rules they have signed up to – from Italy failing to arrest a suspected Libyan war criminal in January, to South Africa failing to arrest Sudan’s convicted former President Omar al-Bashir more than a decade ago.
“There are virtually no consequences when states fail to live up to those obligations,” Holvoet explained. The Trump administration’s hostility toward the ICC, including sanctions on judges, has also curbed the court’s ability to do its job.
Can Putin even fly through EU airspace?
Putin may feel safe on Hungarian soil, but getting there may be more problematic. Although EU sanctions against Putin do not include a ban on travel to the bloc, the EU banned Russian aircraft from its airspace in 2022.
That means Putin’s plane will need special permission to fly over EU countries if talks in Budapest go ahead. “Such insults must be issued by member states individually,” EU Commission spokeswoman Anita Hipper told reporters on Friday.
Hungary is landlocked and borders EU members Romania, Slovakia, Austria, Slovenia and Croatia. Romania says it has not received any requests for access to airspace from Moscow – nor from nearby Bulgaria, although its foreign minister has reportedly said the country is ready to allow Putin to fly over.
Hungary’s southern neighbor Serbia could also be a major entry point, as it is not an EU member and has refused to engage with EU sanctions against Russia. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban welcomed Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic to Budapest on Tuesday and welcomed the opportunity to “re-engage” with a “strategic partner”.
Grin and bear it to keep Trump at bay?
Whether Hungary remains in the headlines or not, the EU now finds itself walking a familiar tightrope: trying to keep the US president in support of Russia, sometimes for the sake of Ukraine and the EU’s future security.
Many of Ukraine’s European allies have already invested extensive political capital in maintaining friendly relations with Trump – from swallowing a trade deal considered unbalanced at best, to promising to devote 5% of GDP to defense spending.
And EU ministers are keen to emphasize that what is said at future meetings will be more important than where they are held.
“Budapest is just a venue,” Denmark’s top diplomat Lars Løkke Rasmussen said on Monday. “This is a decision taken by the American President who wants to meet with his Russian counterpart. I can’t do anything about this other than to emphasize that we stand with Ukraine.”
Edited by: Andreas Illmer