Financial markets emit signals that only the most attentive catch in time. As bitcoin (BTC) corrects after reaching an all-time high in early October and an ounce of gold hits an all-time high of $4,380, investors are sensing a profound change.
This move signals a turning point in monetary policies, where gold, historically a crisis barometer, leads the way. In a world where Confidence in traditional money shakes, assets like gold and BTC emerge as havens facing uncertainty.
The analyst who identifies himself on social networks and internet forums as EndGame Macro describe the rise of gold as “the cry of the market”, a warning that something structural is breaking. “We don’t see such a sharp rise in gold, with oil falling, the dollar stable and long-term Treasury yields falling, unless the system is going into crisis prevention mode,” he explains.
Historically, gold has signaled critical moments with its rise. In 1979 he anticipated uncontrolled inflation and loss of confidence in the dollar. 2008 was preceded by the massive expansion of central bank balance sheets following the credit collapse. Then, in 2020, it marked the intervention of the United States Federal Reserve (FED) to stop a liquidity crisis, as seen in the following graph.
“This movement suggests that large institutions are preparing for a financing or credit event, such as a failure in the Treasury bond market, a bank liquidity restriction or an international default that forces new support,” details EndGame Macro.
Therefore, Gold not only rises because of its intrinsic value, but because investors flee counterparty riskthe fear that financial promises will not be fulfilled. “It’s not about inflation this time,” he emphasizes. “It is a sign that policymakers could lose control, forcing them to intervene with liquidity measures under a new name,” adds the analyst.
The erosion of fiat currency
For his part, the trader Pablo Gil offers a perspective complementary: the gold boom responds to the “debasement trade, the flight of investors from sovereign bonds and traditional currencies due to fear that the money will lose real value.
“With uncontrolled public deficits, debts at historic levels and governments reluctant to exercise fiscal discipline, the idea of a ‘degradation’ of fiat money no longer sounds far-fetched,” he says.
This mistrust pushes investors towards less manipulable assets such as gold, silver and BTC. “Gold and silver have broken historical highs, and bitcoin, despite its volatility, has accumulated significant increases this year,” says Gil. For him, these assets are “the new trenches” against the loss of purchasing power of traditional currencies.
Unlike EndGame Macro, which focuses its analysis on imminent systemic change, Gil sees the movement as part of a more gradual transitionl. “Central banks accumulate gold, some countries explore digital currencies and public debt grows at unsustainable rates. Confidence in fiat money is breaking down, but the system does not collapse overnight,” he maintains. For him, gold and bitcoin are symptoms of a shift towards assets perceived as more solid.
Bitcoin: refuge or speculation?
Economist Daniel Arráez, specialized in bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, provides a third vision in an interview with CriptoNoticias. EndGame Macro and Gil agree that gold and bitcoin reflect a crisis of confidence in fiat money.
“Money by decree is losing purchasing power, and investors are looking for assets that do not depend on governments,” he says. However, it diverges from EndGame Macro on one key point: you don’t see a general aversion to risk, but rather an appetite for it. “We observed movements of hundreds of millions in leveraged positions with poor risk management. This is not flight from risk, but rather an evasion of regulatory illusion,” he explains.
For Arráez, bitcoin shines when it is used as a “sovereign asset,” designed to be independent and resistant to censorship. “In devastated economies, such as Venezuela or countries in southern Africa, bitcoin has been a refuge from collapsed local currencies,” he details. But warns that leaving it on third-party platforms nullifies its potential. “If you don’t control your bitcoin, it’s like having money in an investment bank. It’s not a safe haven.”
Unlike gold, whose role as a safe haven value is widely accepted, bitcoin fights against its speculative perception. Even so, Arráez highlights its growing adoption. “Investment funds, private companies and even governments are accumulating bitcoin. This could reconfigure its distribution and ownership,” he points out. Since its origin in 2009, in the midst of the financial crisis, bitcoin was designed as an alternative to traditional money, and its relevance is growing in contexts of instability.
The opposite position – that the fiat system remains solid – has solid arguments. The demand for US Treasuries and the hegemony of the dollar in global trade suggest that the change will not be immediate.
However, the signs are undeniable: Central banks accumulate gold, experiments with digital currencies proliferate and public debt grows without restraint. As Gil says, “economic stability depends on credibility. When politics abuses money, history shows that money seeks refuge elsewhere.”