A migration of just 1% of capital from gold would take bitcoin above $134,000.
New whales have increased their BTC holdings, a similar pattern to the previous bull market.
The investor and market analyst, Juan Rodríguez, projects a favorable scenario for the price of bitcoin (BTC) in the last quarter of 2025, anchored in a possible rotation of capital from gold towards assets with greater volatility.
According to Rodríguez, this move will depend on key macroeconomic catalysts, such as the upcoming meeting between the leaders of the United States and China, and US inflation data.
In a recent analysis, the host of the YouTube channel “Bitcoin and cryptos” explained that the market is in a situation similar to that of 2020when gold reached a maximum and then entered a lateralization phase.
The following chart shows that this is what is happening with gold now:
This 2020 behavior preceded a migration of capital into bitcoin that boosted its price. «At that point, some investors (not in a huge proportion, 2%) moved capital from gold to bitcoin and participated in that rally bullish,” he noted.
Currently, gold has experienced a “very significant rise” and shows signs of consolidation, while bitcoin remains in a range. “Many of us expect an upward movement towards the end of this year,” said Rodríguez.
The main thesis is that, as economic uncertainty decreases, investors will seek higher returns on assets like bitcoin.
The trigger for this change could be a meeting between the presidents of the United States and China. A positive result in trade negotiations would reduce geopolitical risk, encouraging the outflow of capital from safe haven assets. “If that comes out positive, there may be a capital rotation from gold to bitcoin,” he commented.
What price will bitcoin reach if it rotates capital from gold?
To measure the impact, Rodríguez cited a Bitwise study, which suggests that a turnover of just 1% of gold capital could take bitcoin above $134,000. However, he warned: “Without agreements, this rotation will not occur and rather the opposite will occur.”
Another short-term determining factor is the United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. A rebound to 3.1% is expected, a figure that, according to the analyst, “has already been discounted by the market.” The true risk for the price of the digital currency would be a higher than expected data. “The problem is that numbers greater than this come out, that would be bearish and perhaps the $100,000 scenario could be probable,” he pointed out.
From the perspective of on-chain analysis, Rodríguez highlighted the behavior of whales (entities with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC). He observed that The new whales have increased their bitcoin holdings “dramatically”a similar pattern to that seen before the 2021 bull market.
Although, as CriptoNoticias has reported, there were recent sales by some old whales, the analyst indicated that during the last correction “they have accumulated around 30,000 bitcoin in general.”
Finally, Rodríguez contrasted the outlook for bitcoin with that of other digital assets, warning about the risks. He mentioned the case of the co-founder of Ripple, who “has already sold more than $764 million” in XRP tokens, often at local highs, according to data he presented. For the analyst, investors’ strategic focus should remain on assets with solid fundamentals like bitcoin.