The US federal government shutdown is beginning to visibly impact bitcoin (BTC) on-chain metrics.
The paralysis of public spending and the suspension of multiple federal programs for more than a month have generated a contraction in the liquidity of the US financial system, affecting both the flow of capital to the markets and investor confidence.
In this scenario, BTC is beginning to reflect the effects of that “fiscal blackout.” Three market indicators show.
First, bitcoin reserves on exchanges increased for the first time in six weeks, as reflected in the following graph.
The purple line, which measures the total BTC available on platforms, shows a spike in late October (highlighted area in red). This increase usually anticipates sales movementssince investors transfer their funds to exchanges to ensure liquidity or make profits in a scenario of possible volatility.
At the same time, the second graph reveals that Bitcoin miners’ reserves are at their lowest level since mid-2025.
This drop suggests that operators are liquidating part of their holdings to cover operating costs.
Finally, stablecoin withdrawals from exchanges—shown in the third graph—have reached record levels. The sustained rise in these transactions indicates a rotation of capital towards lower risk assets, like stablecoins pegged to the dollar. This is a reflection of a defensive and risk-averse environment.
Together, these three metrics draw the same pattern: the US government shutdown is draining liquidity from the financial system and, with it, weakening the market’s ability to support the price of bitcoin.
According to investment firm XWIN Research Japan, this dynamic reveals a “contraction of confidence and capital” that could take time to reverse even after the government reopens.
The situation, they point out, constitutes a new resilience test for bitcoin in the midst of a market pressured by the fiscal dysfunction of the world’s main economy.