The analyst at the analysis firm CryptoQuant known as MAC.D warns that the true “crypto winter” would only begin if the price of bitcoin (BTC) falls below USD 78,500, a level that he identifies as the average cost base of large investors.
This threshold, saysrepresents the equilibrium point of the so-called “strong hands” of the market—institutions, funds and large whales— which continue to accumulate even amid the current correction.
“The realized price (average acquisition cost) of these permanent holders has risen to around $78,520, indicating that long-term-oriented capital is accumulating at higher levels,” MAC.D explained in its analysis. In his opinion, only a sustained break below that level would mark the beginning of a new prolonged bearish phase.
The graph below reflects the evolution of the realized price (orange line) of the addresses that accumulate BTC, compared to the market price (blue line).
The graph shows a constant upward trend in the average acquisition cost of these addresses, which is currently close to USD 78,500. This means that large holders continue to buy even at higher prices, raising their cost base and reflecting sustained long-term accumulation. The orange line, in addition, has historically acted as a level of structural support: When the price of BTC falls near this point, strong buying usually appears, limiting losses.
Pressure absorbed by permanent wallets
Despite the recent drop in the price of BTC, which remains at $100,480 according to the CriptoNoticias Price Calculator, the analyst highlights that short-term selling pressure is being absorbed by these “permanent holder” wallets. The latter are addresses that have never recorded a single BTC outflow.
The above demonstrates, according to MAC.D, a rotation of ownership towards investors with greater conviction and a longer time horizon.
Furthermore, MAC.D considers that the market is entering a phase of liquidity expansion, driven by expectations of rate cuts, the end of quantitative tightening (QT) and the increase in money supply (M2).
These factors, he points out, they could accelerate a faster recovery compared to previous bear cycles.
The data coincides with the analyzes of another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, who reports that BTC accumulator addresses “are reaching record levels”, with more than 375,000 BTC acquired in the last 30 days. “On November 5 alone, more than 50,000 BTC were added,” he stated, highlighting that the accumulation trend intensifies even as the price declines.