A statement by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on migration and public security has been polarizing in Germany for several weeks. In mid-October, Merz said that the federal government was correcting past failures in migration policy and making progress, “but of course there is still this problem with our “stadbild”. [lit. cityscape, a reference to urban spaces]That’s why the Federal Interior Minister is now working to make large-scale repatriation possible.”
It was not until a week after his statement that Merz became more specific: Germany needs immigration, he said, especially for the labor market. The problems, he said, are caused by immigrants who don’t have permanent residence status, don’t work and don’t follow the rules.
Merz received some support for this statement, but also opposition and strong opposition from various parties and civil society.
growing insecurity
What effect is the debate having on citizens? The opinion pollsters at Infratest-Dimap are considering this question. A survey of 1,300 Germans eligible to vote was conducted for the public broadcaster between 3 and 5 November. ARD In the November edition of the monthly Deutschlandtrend.
Half of the respondents said they felt unsafe in public places, on roads and in public transport. Eight years ago, the figure was only half that.
The biggest fears relate to theft and verbal attacks in public. Less common are concerns about becoming a victim of physical or sexual harassment or a terrorist attack.
Is it the debate about the perception of urban spaces that is fostering a sense of insecurity? Or is it a combination of migration and a perceived decline in public safety?
Statistically, a person is more likely to become a victim of violence at home rather than in a public place. In 2024, more than 265,000 cases of domestic violence were reported to police in Germany – a new high. Nearly three-quarters of victims are women, and in three out of four cases, the perpetrator is a partner or ex-partner. The Federal Criminal Police Office has found that approximately 71% of serious sexual crimes occur in private homes, with only 21% occurring in public places.
Migration and economy
According to survey respondents, the issue of migration tops the list of political problems that German politicians should pay attention to. Thirty-two percent called it Germany’s most important problem, while 28% said the state of the German economy was the most troubling problem.
Compared to last summer, the perceived importance of economic issues has increased significantly (+7). Only 18% see issues like social justice and poverty as urgent problems. While only 14% mentioned environmental protection and climate change.
Insecure times – even in foreign policy
Respondents confirmed a general increase in uncertainty, their sense of national stability has been shaken. Compared to 2015, only 38% of German voters say they consider Germany’s foreign policy position safe (-36). The perception of Germany’s declining economic position in the world is even more pronounced. Only 29% still consider it safe (-56). Questions are also being raised on social stability. Only 26% consider it safe (-37).
As is often the case, individual life situations are viewed more positively. The majority of people surveyed consider their immediate living environment, their personal standard of living and, if they are employed, their job to be secure.
However, the sense of security here has also declined drastically in the last decade. Only half of German citizens are confident that they will be financially stable in old age. Twenty-seven percent said they were confident about their children’s future, only half as many as ten years ago.
bad opinion of the federal government
Given this situation, eligible voters are very dissatisfied with the work of politicians.
They see a non-collegial atmosphere and disagreements within the ruling coalition between the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) and the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD). 79 percent of those surveyed said they were concerned by the parties’ unwillingness to compromise and doubted they would be able to find solutions to important issues given their political differences.
After only six months in office, Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government is faring no better in the public eyes than the previous centre-left coalition of the SPD, environmentalist Greens and neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP), which collapsed a year ago. Only 22% of those surveyed in the current Deutschlandtrend believe that the new government is doing a good job. Three-quarters are less satisfied or not at all satisfied.
Christian Democrats and AfD are face to face
Had the elections been held the following Sunday, the CDU/CSU would have received 27% of the vote and the SPD 14%. This means that the ruling coalition will no longer have a majority in the Bundestag.
Alternative for Germany (AfD), a partly right-wing extremist party, will once again be the second-strongest party with 26% of the vote.
The Greens (12%) and the Left Party (10%) remain stable compared to the October survey.
Apart from the AfD, whose support has increased slightly. Nearly three in ten eligible voters now say it is acceptable in principle to vote for the party. Other parties have been unable to expand their voter base, with some parties’ numbers stagnating and others declining.
This article was originally written in German.
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