2026 would be a bullish year for JP Morgan.
The historic bitcoin cycle of 3 bullish years and 1 bearish year would be broken.
JP Morgan & Chase Co., the largest banking entity in the United States, raises its prediction for the price of bitcoin (BTC), projecting that it could reach $170,000 over the next six to twelve months.
This new price objective is based on a comparative analysis with the gold market and a reading of recent activity in the futures markets.
Analysts at the firm, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, they point out that the cryptocurrency market experienced a correction close to 20% from its recent highs.
The most notable decline occurred around October 10, amid an unusually high volume of liquidations in the perpetual futures market, an event that represented one of the sector’s most pronounced corrections of the year, as reported by CriptoNoticias.
Despite significant sales, JP Morgan experts suggest that the deleveraging stage in perpetual futures contracts appears to have ended to a great extent. According to the report, the stabilization observed in these key instruments indicates that deleveraging in this segment is possibly behind us.
Gold also influences the price of bitcoin
A central element in predicting the price of bitcoin is the comparison of volatility between bitcoin and gold. Analysts noted that the recent increase in the precious metal’s volatility has made bitcoin more attractive to investors in risk-adjusted terms. The volatility ratio between both assets has decreased, reaching below 2.0.
They estimate that bitcoin’s current market capitalization, close to $2.1 trillion, would need to increase by almost 67% to match the total private sector investment in gold, which amounts to approximately $6.2 trillion.
This “mechanical exercise” of valuation leads to a theoretical price close to $170,000, but for now BTC is close to $100,000as can be seen in the following graph.
The financial institution’s new projection exceeds the previous forecast, issued in October, which placed the possible peak of BTC at $165,000. If JP Morgan’s scenario for next year materializes, it would imply a break in the historical pattern of bitcoin’s four-year cycles, where 2026, theoretically, would correspond to a bearish cycle.