The on-chain analysis firm Glassnode considers that the bitcoin (BTC) market is in a stabilization phase after the sharp falls at the end of October.
glassnode holds that the digital currency “is testing a critical inflection zone”, with “cautious but constructive” conditions and signs that momentum is starting to improve.
«Bitcoin retested the key USD 100,000 level this week, an area that has repeatedly acted as crucial support. After a sharp decline, the price action has begun to stabilize, forming what appears to be a potential bottom structure,” notes the analytics firm.
According to the analysis, bitcoin’s recovery to over $105,000 “suggests early signs of buyer revival,” while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from deeply oversold levels and remains at 32.9 points, as seen in the chart below.
“The RSI has bounced from readings below 30, indicating that selling pressure may be easing,” the firm adds.
Glassnode data also shows a gradual improvement in cumulative volume flow, reflecting “reduced seller aggression and a two-way return to market flow.”
The firm highlights that spot activity remains elevated near recent highs, “confirming sustained participation and volatility expansion potential” if the price surpasses the short-term resistances between USD 111,000 and USD 116,000.
In derivatives markets, Glassnode sees a deleveraging process: open interest in futures fell 2.6% to $34.3 billion, while funding rates fell 6.7% in a week. The options markets, for their part, maintain a defensive posture, although with a lower volatility differential, “which implies that fear is beginning to decrease.”
“These conditions point to a cautious but stabilizing derivatives environment,” Glassnode summarizes. Regarding exchange-traded funds (ETFs), flows continue to be negative – with weekly net outflows of USD 972 million – but “constant”, suggesting “measured profit taking and not massive exits.”
At the network level, on-chain activity maintains a positive bias. Adjusted transfer volumes per entity rose 38.6%, to USD 13.2 billion in one week, and active addresses increased 3.9% in the same period, to 716,060 active wallets, indicating stable user participation. This is what it looks like in the following graph:
However, profitability metrics are weakening: the percentage of supply in profit fell to 74.2% and the ratio of realized profits and losses fell to 0.5, levels that Glassnode associates with “capitulation conditions” typical of accumulation phases.
“The range between USD 100,000 and USD 108,000 could mark a medium-term support base, although the downward macro trend in profitability continues to limit bullish conviction,” the report concludes.
Market context
Analysts agree with the view that the current bitcoin correction It is more of a pause than a structural setback. On-chain analyst Willy Woo maintains that “BTC liquidity is beginning to recover” and that, if the trend continues, “the price is usually confirmed approximately two weeks later.”
For his part, Adam Back, co-founder of Blockstream, recalled that “in previous bull cycles there were a dozen drops of 30% to 35%,” so considers the current decline as a natural adjustment within a larger trend.
Salvadoran analyst Jaime Merino, who was consulted by CriptoNoticias, added that “we are in a zone of controlled opportunity, not panic,” and that these types of movements “are typical of accumulation phases within broader bull markets.”
In that vein, with “improved momentum” and a local bottom that could form near $100,000, Glassnode identifies an inflection point for bitcoin: a stabilization range that, if confirmed, could define the base support of the next bullish cycle.