The mNAV metric for Strategy drops below 1.00.
From a bullish perspective, this could be a good buy point for MSTR.
Shares in Strategy (MSTR), the listed company with the largest bitcoin (BTC) treasury, have fallen to trade below the net asset value of its holdings in the digital currency.
In the last month, The stock has lost 26% and has accumulated a drop of 43% in the last six months. Today it is trading around $224, compared to the $316 it marked just a month ago, as seen in the graph.
This correction has been more pronounced than that of bitcoin itself, which reached its all-time high above $126,000 at the end of October, as reported by CriptoNoticias, and is currently around $103,000, which represents an approximate drop of 18%.
As a result, Strategy’s base net asset value (mNAV) multiple has decreased to 0.97. This indicator measures the relationship between the company’s market capitalization and the market value of its bitcoin (using the basic shares in circulation, without future dilution by convertibles). A mNAV less than 1 means the market values the entire company for less than its net bitcoin reserves are worth..
From a bullish perspective, shares trading at a discount to the value of their BTC can be seen as an attractive entry opportunity for investors who maintain conviction in the long-term thesis and desire exposure to bitcoin.
However, from a more skeptical view, the decrease in mNAV below 1 could indicate that investors are beginning to question the sustainability of the strategy. If the company loses the ability to continue raising capital under favorable conditions, the discount could become structural and deepen over time.
“The worst could be yet to come,” says analyst Daniel Muvdi, since if BTC corrects below $75,000, which is Strategy’s average purchase value, “the decline could intensify, forcing them to sell BTC to cover expenses, which could put much more than just MSTR at risk.”
Despite the stock market weakness, Strategy has not stopped its accumulation strategy. His last known purchase was 487 BTC for about 50 million dollars, although the pace of acquisitions has been significantly reduced compared to previous periods.