Many UN agencies responsible for assisting refugees and displaced people say their capacity to provide services will be at the limit as winter approaches in many of the most vulnerable camps around the world.
This week, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the World Food Program and the Food and Agriculture Organization each highlighted the pressure that aid cuts are placing on food and shelter resources for millions of displaced people.
Tensions have further increased due to the deteriorating situation in Sudan, Central and West Africa and the ongoing crisis in the Middle East.
WFP and FAO have said that just over a third of the $29 billion (about €25 billion) they estimate is needed to deliver critical food assistance to hunger-stricken areas – many of which are in or near conflict zones – has been secured.
UNHCR has said it currently has about $3.9 billion in funds available. That’s about the same — not adjusted for inflation — as it was a decade ago. Since then, the number of displaced people in need of humanitarian assistance has doubled.
The implication for people living in refugee camps or informal settings around the world is that adequate food, shelter and heating will be reduced or disappear as winter sets in.
Nearly a third of refugees globally could lose access to humanitarian aid due to budget cuts, a spokesperson for the UNHCR told DW.
“Essential programs are being cut or halted, and millions of people face worsening living conditions, increased risks of exploitation and abuse, and could be pushed into further displacement,” he said.
USAID cuts setting
Most often, aid pressure has resulted from substantial cuts to foreign aid budgets by governments.
These were highlighted by the Trump administration’s decision to close the United States’ main humanitarian program, the US Agency for International Development (USAID).
But America is not alone. Although considered the largest chunk of government aid, the US cut is part of broader aid cuts by many countries. As the year draws to a close, the pressure of these missing funds is increasing.
“The extent of this varies by location,” explains Nicholas Micinski, a researcher at the Global Governance of Migration at American University, US.
“However, the edge of the cliff is coming, most of the grants that were scattered [prior to the closure of USAID]They’re running out.”
While aid agencies are disproportionately funded by these government contributions, some financing is provided from large philanthropic donations and supporting foundations.
But Micinski said it is unrealistic to expect outside government donations to bridge the gap. “The future is not going to be filled with philanthropy or individual donations,” he said.
Therefore, to shore up their dwindling finances, many agencies, particularly those operating under the auspices of the United Nations, have been forced to cut thousands of jobs from their workforce – accounting for up to a third of positions in some, while protecting regional operations where possible.
There are twice as many displaced people now as there were a decade ago
UNHCR estimates that more than 123 million people have been forcibly displaced around the world due to persecution, conflict, violence, human rights abuses or other disruptive events.
Two thirds of those displaced move to neighboring countries in search of asylum or refuge, and more than 70% of these migrants are currently located in low- and middle-income countries.
Often, refuges are informal, not in large camps, nor supervised by aid providers.
The largest formal refugee camps are located kakuma and Dadaab in Kenya, Kutupalong in Bangladesh, Zaatari in Jordan and Um Rakuba in Sudan.
Severe food shortages are being felt most acutely in areas affected by the ongoing conflict. These include places like Gaza and the West Bank and Sudan, where famine has been reported.
less money, more mouth
Providers have already revealed they will be forced to prioritize those seeking help in formal settings. By mid-2025, Tom Fletcher, emergency relief coordinator for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, said they would “ruthlessly prioritize those most in need.”
Fletcher said organizations like his have been forced to do “brutal math” to determine who will get support and who won’t. Other agencies also expressed the same sentiment.
With less money and resources and more people to support, it is possible that people living in refugee camps will experience hunger and cold. Some people want them. However, according to UNHCR, this could have been prevented if funding had been comparable to previous years.
Speaking to DW, Kerry Holloway and Mike Pearson, research fellows at the Overseas Development Institute (ODI), a global affairs think tank that focuses on development and humanitarian issues, said reduced funding would leave few options for providers and recipients in formal camp settings.
“Especially looking at the refugees who live in the camps where you are getting the most assistance, I think they will feel that [the cuts] “Very strongly because there are very few options to bring food and meet their needs outside of the humanitarian system,” Holloway said.
“People will find ways to meet their needs, but they may have to rely on less good coping mechanisms than we expect.”
The long-term goal of improving the overall efficiency of the United Nations, as put forward by Secretary-General Antonio Guterres as part of his “UN80” reform program, could help improve the use of funds across agencies. There is also pressure in parts of the aid sector to put funding into localized delivery groups and efforts, rather than large “umbrella” aid organizations that operate on a global scale.
But reform initiatives are slow-moving, and the situation is unlikely to improve in the short-term for many. For displaced people, they must decide what steps to take to survive.
“It’s not that migrants or refugees are not actors in their own right; they make strategic, rational choices,” Micinski said. “When the UN stops giving food aid to refugees, they will choose what to do. The next step is very scary.”
“It’s like looking at the situation that if you don’t get food aid in a place, will you go back to a war zone, go back to a place where your families were targeted? Or will you go to a third country, some other place? These are extremely difficult choices.”