Ecuador’s president wants to change his country’s constitution, and Ecuadorians will have to say in a referendum this weekend whether they agree with it or not.
The vote on November 16 will decide whether to repeal a nearly 20-year-old constitutional clause banning the presence of foreign troops in the country.
The survey by the Sedatos polling firm shows that about two-thirds of the country supports the change. If passed, it would allow the US to occupy bases on Ecuador’s Pacific coast.
For Ecuador, it would strengthen ties with the US and potentially improve efforts to fight local violence. For the Trump administration, it would be a boon to its campaign against drug trafficking networks across the region, which has seen nearly two dozen military strikes on alleged drug ships in South and Central American waters.
Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa has already hosted US Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem ahead of the vote, with the pair visiting former US military sites in the coastal cities of Manta and Salinas, which are now used by Ecuador’s military. A third site in the Galapagos Islands has been ruled out by Noboa.
By 2008, Manta was the operational center of US interdiction activities.
“The reason for the base at Manta was basically to allow American surveillance aircraft to patrol those waters,” said Ivan Ellis, Latin America research professor at the US Army War College Strategic Studies Institute. “So you can do a more effective job at interdicting drug boats going into the eastern Pacific.
“Without it, America was forced to move to other places [outside of Ecuador],
Violence from peace: US withdrawal could affect Ecuador’s domestic security
Ecuador was once widely seen as one of the most peaceful countries in South America.
But years of violent crime have changed that picture, with international drug cartels and local gangs increasing murders and bombings.
Since the departure of US forces in 2008 and former leader Rafael Correa’s redrafting of the constitution to ban foreign forces from Ecuadorian soil, the country has become a major transit hub for drugs, particularly cocaine, from illicit manufacturing centers in neighboring Colombia and Peru.
Ellis said Korea’s constitutional constraints have left security forces ill-equipped to deal with international crime.
,[They] “Ecuador has always been a relatively peaceful, low-violence place, so there were dramatically underfunded, dramatically lacking capabilities,” Ellis said. He said Ecuador’s leaders recently re-engaged the US in the security partnership, Noboa in 2023 and the arrival of Donald Trump in 2024 have brought the two countries even closer.
Indeed, rising drug and crime issues and a “wartime” campaign platform against gangs and local violence prompted Noboa to run for re-election earlier this year against a popular leftist opponent, Luisa Gonzalez.
Now, it appears Ecuadorians will reverse the constitutional course.
“The numbers of organized crime are changing people’s opinion,” said Benjamin Gedan, director of the Latin America program at the U.S. Stimson Center.
“Recent polls show surprising support for U.S. strikes against alleged drug traffickers in the Caribbean and Pacific.
“Ecuadorians are largely pro-American, use the US dollar, and believe their security services are inexperienced and weak.”
Ngoboa’s government has indicated that if the vote passes local police and security forces will be skilled with American expertise.
Ecuador could be a key partner in Trump’s drug campaign
More than 76 people have died in nearly 20 US attacks on boats in international waters since September.
The Trump administration alleges that these boats, mostly Venezuelan, are involved in illegal drug shipments. But it has not produced evidence despite calls from Latin American governments, the United Nations and human rights observers.
The US attacks have shaken the region and show no signs of slowing down. This week, its largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R. Ford reached territorial waters.
Trump’s primary target has been the Maduro regime in Venezuela, which is widely considered illegitimate by governments across the US after two disputed elections, including one last year.
But while Venezuela remains unpopular among its neighbors, not everyone is happy with the US.
Trump has been publicly frustrated with Colombia, saying President Gustavo Petro’s recent efforts to curb illegal drug production have not gone far enough.
Relations worsened this week when Petro suspended intelligence sharing with the US in response to drug attacks that have killed innocent people.
But while the US military’s drug operation is unpopular with Colombia’s government, Ecuador is open to the possibility of change, even if only as a response to addressing domestic crime issues.
“Would a reopened US base solve the problem? No,” Gedan said. “Above all, Ecuador needs to rid its police and judicial systems of corruption and find ways to prevent money laundering and dismantle sophisticated criminal groups.
“But given the terrible cost of violent crime, it is no surprise that Ecuadorians, for the time being, will settle for American fighter jets and drones blowing up bad guys at sea.”
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