As talks heat up in the final days of the UN climate conference in Belém, hopes have temporarily risen that progress on moving away from fossil fuels may be within reach.
The topic is one of several thorny discussion topics, including increased finance and climate-friendly trade, that COP30 President Andres Correa do Lago is trying to bring to the line. He said he expected countries to reach a decision on a so-called roadmap to phase out oil, gas and coal this Wednesday, with outstanding issues to be dealt with on Friday.
While phasing out fossil fuels was not originally on the official agenda of COP30, the past week has seen growing political momentum on the issue.
Colombia is one of about 80 countries — including Germany, Kenya and Britain — that are calling for a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels to be included in the summit’s final agreement. Support has emerged from both rich and poor countries across Europe, Africa, Latin America and small island developing states.
“People around the world are mobilizing en masse to demand concrete action for climate justice, especially against fossil fuel expansion,” said Irene Vélez Torres, Colombia’s environment minister. He said that despite being a producer of oil and coal, the country is not awarding new exploration contracts. “We have to leave here with a call for a roadmap,” he said.
Brazil is among the countries supporting it push, Although A draft text of the final summit agreement, prepared by negotiators and circulated by the COP30 Presidency, lacked concrete proposals, listing only options for inclusion.
Any roadmap why there would be such a departure?
Only two years ago, after fierce debate and nearly three decades of annual climate conferences, nations at COP28 in Dubai finally agreed to move away from fossil fuels that cause rising temperatures linked to storms, floods and heat waves.
But this has not happened yet. Fossil fuel emissions are set to reach record levels in 2025, despite what scientists say is the need to embrace cleaner energy sources to prevent wilder heat and more destructive extreme weather.
A roadmap to accelerate the transition to renewable energy could provide clues about how to make the change, but it would require dealing with the huge amounts of money still flowing into fossil fuels.
While some large oil and gas companies are planning to peak or decline production in the long term, there is a general trend toward increasing it in the short term.
This expansion is based on huge investment amount. According to recent research, public fossil fuel finance has increased by $75 billion per year (€65 billion) since 2014, to a total of $1.6 trillion (€1.4 trillion) per year.
protest and optimism
The topic of fossil fuels has long been a politically charged topic at the annual two-week climate conferences, and those pushing for a fossil fuel roadmap this week may face stiff opposition from some quarters. At least not from oil producing countries like Saudi Arabia and Iran.
Brazil has said there are still wide differences on the issue and a proposal requiring countries to submit plans to reduce their fossil fuel dependence has already been rejected by many countries. “Most countries are either very favorable or it’s a red line,” said COP President Andrés Correa do Lago.
Bin Hu, an associate professor at the Institute for Climate Change and Sustainable Development at China’s Tsinghua University, told DW that China is a country that will not publicly say it will phase out fossil fuels. “Because China needs to balance economic growth, energy security and tackling climate change at the same time.”
He said some areas of China are concerned about how the transition to clean energy could increase unemployment.
The draft text has also faced criticism from some who support a clear path forward from fossil fuel dependence. The roadmap’s current context “is weak and is presented as an option,” said Tina Stege, climate envoy for the Marshall Islands, a country facing existential threat from rising sea levels. “It should be strengthened and adopted.”
Do Lago also raised hopes by suggesting that since the idea of a fossil fuel transition had already been approved by consensus in 2023, the roadmap this year might not need to set such a high bar. Instead it may be adopted with almost unanimous support.
As COP30 approaches its crucial final hours, many will be hoping that the next draft text will feature stronger language on fossil fuels.
Ed Miliband, the United Kingdom’s top energy and climate change official, said there is no other way forward, adding that this is the issue uniting the global South and North. “To say with one voice that this is an issue that cannot be ignored, that cannot be swept under the carpet and that is where the momentum is.”
Edited by: Tamsin Walker