Thirty years after the signing of the Dayton Peace Accords that ended the Bosnian War, Bosnia and Herzegovina is facing its deepest political crisis since the end of hostilities.
Institutional stagnation, rising nationalist politics, and renewed pressure for greater regional decentralization point to a system that is approaching its structural limits.
The Dayton Agreement was signed on November 21, 1995 in Ohio. Although this brought an end to three and a half years of fighting, it left Bosnia with a complex and fragmented structure for governance.
After the post-war territorial arrangement divided the country into two entities, the Serb-majority Republika Srpska and the Bosniak-Croat Federation of Bosnia-Herzegovina, the Brcko District acts as a neutral buffer to prevent regional integration that could enable secession.
Holbrooke’s warning
During a visit to Banja Luka in Republika Srpska 20 years ago, American diplomat Richard Holbrooke, the chief architect of the Dayton Agreement, warned that political actors in Bosnia and Herzegovina continued to advocate the secession of a third, Croatian entity within Bosnia, Republika Srpska, or the abolition of the current configuration.
He cautioned that such aspirations could jeopardize the stability built by Dayton. His condition for progress – consensus among all parties – remains unfulfilled to date.
Indeed, the absence of political consensus in Bosnia for 30 years has brought the Dayton peace architecture close to collapse.
Furthermore, the debate over Croatia’s long-standing demand for the secession of Republika Srpska and a third entity has re-emerged with new intensity in recent years, highlighting the unresolved structural disputes inherent in the constitutional system.
Presidential election on 23 November
Against this backdrop, voters in Republika Srpska will head to the polls on Sunday to elect a new president.
Early presidential elections were called after Bosnia’s Central Election Commission revoked the mandate of long-term President of Republika Srpska Milorad Dodik in August, after the country’s highest court sentenced him to a year in prison and barred him from all political activity for six years for disobeying the decisions of High Representative Christian Schmidt, the international envoy appointed to implement the Dayton Agreement.
Although he avoided jail time by paying a fine, Dodik continues to serve as a key political figure in the unit.
‘President of all Presidents’
Although Dodik has nominated Sinisa Karajan as his candidate for the November 23 election, he has also openly indicated that he intends to retain de facto control regardless of the formal distribution of power – declaring himself “the most important person” in the Republika Srpska and “president of all presidents”.
His position has been strengthened by the recent US decision to lift sanctions imposed on him seven years ago, despite the fact that he spent several months following the final court ruling against him taking actions aimed at threatening Bosnia’s constitutional order and establishing parallel institutions.
Who is at the forefront in the elections?
Sinisa Karan, former Minister of Internal Affairs of Republika Srpska, is Milorad Dodik’s right-hand man and is seen as his puppet and pawn in his games against political opponents.
Six candidates are in the fray in the elections. Support for four of them is negligible, meaning Karan’s only real rival in Sunday’s voting is Branco Blanusa.
Unlike Karan, Blanuša is completely unknown in the political scene of Republika Srpska. Blanusa, a professor at the University of Banja Luka and member of the Serbian Democratic Party, was nominated by the party because none of its senior political figures wanted to run for president, just a year before Bosnia’s next parliamentary election.
Will it be a tough race?
Surveys indicate that there is a close contest between Karan and Blanusa and a small number of votes will decide the winner.
If Karajan wins, it is expected that he will serve Dodik by signing only acts under the president’s jurisdiction, while Dodik will continue to perform all other functions.
If Blanusa wins, the political situation will certainly become more complicated. Dodik has already said that if Blanusa wins, Dodik’s SNSD party, which has a parliamentary majority, would block the winner from being sworn in and assuming his presidential duties.
This could lead to massive protests.
Impact on national politics
At the national level, the governance of Bosnia and Herzegovina depends on the division of power between Serbs, Bosniaks and Croats.
During the legal proceedings against Dodik last year, Republika Srpska intensified its blockade of national Bosnian institutions such as the Council of Ministers and the Parliament. Apparently the intention was to put pressure on the judiciary.
Bosniak representatives in the coalition government at the national level responded by leaving the coalition formed with Dodik’s SNSD and Dragan Kovic’s Croat Party, which continued to be politically aligned with Dodik.
Since then the Bosnian government has existed only on paper.
The Serbo-Croat partnership is rooted in the two groups’ shared interest in the creation of autonomous ethno-national entities for Serbs and Croats within Bosnia and Herzegovina, a move that would effectively dismantle the existing Dayton structure.
Very little progress in 30 years
As a result, three decades after Dayton, Bosnia finds itself back in its 1995 negotiating position.
Since Dayton, institutional reforms in Bosnia have been minimal, and European integration remains largely declarative, lacking concrete progress.
In short, Bosnia and Herzegovina is weaker, more polarized, and further from institutional integration than at any point since the accords were signed.
The crisis now unfolding underscores the fragility of a political system that has outlived its original architects, yet remains fundamentally vulnerable to the same pressures that shaped its creation.
It is highly unlikely that the results of Sunday’s election will change this.
Edited by: Angiel Flanagan