Solar energy is widely recognized as an excellent solution for Africa. Sunlight is abundant, economies crave reliable energy sources, and technology is becoming affordable on a large scale.
Solar power is one of the cheapest energy sources worldwide, costing only $0.044 cents per kilowatt-hour, according to 2024 data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). ,kWh) after a 90% decline in solar photovoltaic (PV) module prices in just 13 years.
Africa has so far become a small solar energy player. The entire continent’s installed capacity is just over 18 gigawatts (GW), which is only 1% of global solar PV. This is partly due to the lack of investment capital and pre-existing grid infrastructure.
Now, the tide finally seems to be changing.
Huge influx of Chinese solar panels
Analysis of Chinese export data by British renewable energy think tank Amber indicates a huge influx of solar equipment into Africa. In just 12 months, China shipped solar panels with a total capacity of 15 GW to the continent.
“Everyone in Africa is very excited about solar energy,” John van Zuylen, CEO of the Africa Solar Industry Association (AFSIA), a pan-African lobby group, told DW.
Based on historical export data, AFSIA estimates Africa’s total installed solar capacity since 2000 at about 75 GW, significantly higher than IRENA’s figure. According to van Zuylen, many small-scale and off-grid applications rarely appear in official statistics.
“But if you take the 75 GW number, 75 in 25 years, versus 15 GW in just 12 months, that gives you an idea of the pace that is happening in Africa at the moment.”
A large portion (about 3 GW) comes from a major project in Algeria. But Van Zuylen says several countries in sub-Saharan Africa are also gaining popularity, including Zambia, Rwanda, Senegal, Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria.
“Nigeria is growing very strongly. And, I believe there is a possibility that Nigeria is soon going to be the number one solar opportunity in Africa, surpassing South Africa, because Nigeria has been running on diesel for many years – the price of diesel was subsidized and artificially low,” Van Zuylen said. According to the AFSIA executive, solar is now the cheapest option for many Nigerians.
New countries are pushing into the solar market. For example, Liberia is trying to diversify its clean energy portfolio, which until now has relied mostly on hydropower. Emmanuel K., Executive Director of Liberia’s Environmental Protection Agency, on the sidelines of the COP30 climate conference in Brazil. Ure Yarkpavolo said the country’s first solar park is nearing completion.
“We have about 20 MW that will probably come online by the end of this [year]Maybe early next year. It’s going very fast and there’s a lot more coming in the pipeline,” Yarkpavolo told DW.
Is there more to this than the US-China trade war?
Van Zuylen says there is a combination of factors behind the boom, while some commentators argue that the boom in exports from China is at least partly the result of the tariff standoff between China and the United States. At some point, US President Donald Trump’s administration even threatened to impose tariffs of 3,521% on solar panels from Southeast Asia.
“When the trade started, the cost of equipment went down. The Chinese were desperate to sell the goods,” Fawen Nyakudya, managing director of Zimbabwe-based PFN Solar Systems, told DW. “I would say it’s positive for us. The Chinese have no choice but to treat us well because they know that if they treat us badly again, the next thing is that we won’t buy anything from them.”
According to World Bank data for 2023, 565 million people in sub-Saharan Africa still lack access to electricity. According to Kenyan economist James Shikwati, there is a great need for imported technology.
“Whether it’s coming from China, the US or Europe, I think African people would say, it’s great. And so I would indirectly say that the tariffs create possibilities for African people to access cheaper energy,” Shikwati told DW.
India is also one of the solar equipment suppliers to Africa, but importers prefer China due to lower prices.
Nyakudya believes that Chinese sellers are already adapting to the new market reality and curtailing production to maintain profitability.
“There is a serious shortage, especially when you are looking at panels and lithium batteries. Many dealers and importers say they do not have panels at the moment. Offloading was done only for a short period, but now there is a serious shortage,” Nyakudya said.
Storage and net metering are making solar power more profitable
Lithium batteries have become affordable for private homes and utility-scale operators. Thanks to battery storage solutions, solar energy can be stored and used during evening peak hours.
Net metering, where homes with rooftop panels send unused surplus energy back to the grid in exchange for a refund on their electricity bills, is also proving beneficial.
This could increase profitability fivefold, said Van Zuylen, CEO of AFSIA. “If you need to consume your solar energy whenever it’s being produced, typically you can only cover about 20% of your total electricity consumption. But if you have a net metering system, suddenly you can install panels to cover the equivalent of 100% of your consumption.”
Countries such as Kenya, Namibia and Zimbabwe have already implemented the system that has been in place for a long time in many European countries.
What about red tape and hidden costs?
In some instances, shipping costs and import taxes are still reducing profit margins significantly.
“If I will be charged 15%, obviously I will charge my customer as well,” Nyakudya said.
Countries like Zambia have zero-rated import taxes for solar products to encourage renewable energy. “For a shipment that you can import into Zimbabwe and pay up to $20,000 in VAT, you only pay $26 in Zambia,” he told DW.
Import tariffs are often designed to protect domestic industries from cheap imports. However, this is not the case with Zimbabwe.
“If we were manufacturing solar products ourselves, we would say it is necessary to impose taxes so that we promote local companies. But we are not manufacturing, so why make it difficult for our people?” Nyakudya said.
Additional costs and bureaucracy may thwart solar expansion to some extent. But Van Zuylen believes the economics of solar power will continue to drive investment. He told DW about a recent project in Mauritius that combined solar panels and storage for just $0.07 per kilowatt.
“When you start getting to those kind of price points, you know, you make things happen. It becomes a no-brainer. You need power, you need it at a reasonable price – yes, you go for it.”
Tena Mansani in Belém contributed to this article.
Edited by: Benita Van Eysen