The Caribbean Sea is already largely closed to drug smugglers from South America, but on Thursday Donald Trump announced that US troops would also launch ground strikes against suspected Venezuelan drug smugglers “very soon”. Marking another significant escalation, Trump said on Saturday that the airspace over and around Venezuela would be completely closed.
Since the beginning of September, the US has killed more than 80 people in attacks on suspected drug smugglers – mostly from Venezuela – on about 20 speedboats in the southern Caribbean region. Venezuela describes these actions as “extrajudicial executions” and international observers view them as a clear violation of international law.
Operation Southern Spear
But the biggest concern for Caracas is the show of force by the US off the Venezuelan coast. Over the past three months the US Navy has mobilized about 12,000 troops and a dozen warships, including the world’s largest aircraft carrier.
The United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), which has been ruling with authoritarian methods for more than 20 years under President Nicolás Maduro, sees this as a direct threat to both the party and the country’s sovereignty.
Officially, the US military operation now known as “Southern Spear” aims to combat drug trafficking from South America to the US. But the large-scale military deployment is raising suspicions on many sides that this may be the only goal. Geopolitical interests, such as reducing the influence of China and Russia in the region, along with economic concerns, have been cited as possible motives. Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves.
Cartel de los Souls designated a terrorist organization
There is no doubt that the US government wants to put pressure on the Venezuelan government. Trump has repeatedly called Maduro and his government narco-terrorists. The United States has offered a $50 million (€58 million) reward for the capture of Maduro – double the reward offered for Osama bin Laden, the alleged mastermind of the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks.
The “Cartel de los Sols” (Cartel of the Sons), said to be led by Maduro, was also officially designated a terrorist organization earlier this week. Named after the shoulder insignia worn by officers, this alleged criminal organization has its roots in the Venezuelan military. And since the PSUV has also always based its power largely on the country’s armed forces, Venezuela’s rise as one of South America’s most important drug trafficking hubs has fueled suspicions that the government is also involved.
retaliation in venezuela
Maduro has denied the existence of the Cartel de los Soles, and described the allegations as “ridiculous lies” intended to justify “illegal intervention” in Venezuela. At the same time, he and key cabinet members are stoking Venezuelan nationalism. Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez on Thursday marked the 105th anniversary of the Venezuelan Air Force, calling on citizens to “defend the country with their lives if necessary.”
The government has also provided weapons training to thousands of civilians and activated thousands of militiamen since September. In early November, Venezuelan armed forces reportedly conducted massive exercises involving approximately 200,000 soldiers and paramilitaries – about two-thirds of the country’s currently available armed forces. Maduro has said that 4.5 million trained civilians can be added to that number.
Regime change in Caracas?
While Trump’s vague announcement of the impending land operation once again gave rise to accusations that his goal is to overthrow Maduro’s government, experts consider this unlikely.
“I don’t believe the United States is planning a ground invasion of Venezuela – that could turn into a new Vietnam,” says Christian Quick, a Latin American historian at the University of Klagenfurt, referring to the Vietnam War, in which the US tried unsuccessfully to resolve the civil war there in favor of anti-communist forces from 1965 to 1975.
On the other hand, Quick says that a targeted missile attack or air strike on suspected smuggling infrastructure could be envisioned.
Gunther Maihold, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, says the aim of such action could be to destabilize the PSUV leadership. He says, but so far it does not seem that this will happen. In particular, as both experts emphasize, the US strikes could unify deeply divided Venezuelans again behind their government.
Heading up for a conversation?
According to the US news site, this may be the reason why the good Trump – in parallel to his recent threats – has offered Maduro talks axios, Citing a US government source.
That’s no surprise to Francisco Rodriguez, a political scientist at the University of Denver. “Instead, throughout his two administrations, Trump has consistently approached complex domestic and foreign policy issues through a strategy outlined in his 1987 book, The Art of the Deal: Move forward for negotiations,” he wrote a week ago foreign Affairs,
Phil Gunson, a senior Venezuela analyst for the International Crisis Group, takes a similar view, saying that Trump’s tendencies lead him to negotiate rather than engage in war.
Still, further action seems almost inevitable as threats so far have been ineffective. Gunson says that if the pressure does not work and there is no military response from the US, the fleet will have to turn back without completing its mission and suffer political consequences.
Viola Trader (DW Spanish) contributed to this article, which was originally written in German.