Peace in the north-east of the DRC remains elusive, as the leaders of the respective nations and their top representatives appear to take a proverbial step forward – only to then take two steps back again.
For several months now, efforts have been made at various diplomatic levels to achieve peace in northeastern Congo; Recently, during the Global Gateway Forum held in Brussels on October 9, DRC President Felix Tshisekedi and Rwandan President Paul Kagame were seen shaking hands and talking about building a “peace of the brave”.
But it may be little more than just a symbolic gesture, says Timo Ruzien of Germany’s Konrad Adenauer Foundation (KAS).
The Kinshasa-based analyst believes that “many observers saw it as a verbal farce because it does not correspond at all with the discourse.”
“In fact, it is not yet clearly defined who gets what” Whatever peace deal may be reached between the two neighbors, Roozen said, there are questions and doubts in the minds of many about the future of the troubled region.
Will the Washington Peace Plan Work?
During an upcoming meeting in Washington next week, hosted by US President Donald Trump, the two African leaders are set to meet again and possibly sign the most binding peace agreement between them to date.
The way for such a permanent ceasefire had already been prepared in June, when the foreign ministers of the two countries had already signed a declaration in the US capital to end hostilities.
But it is now doubtful whether the high-level meeting will take place next week amid tensions once again running high: Rebels linked to the Rwandan-backed M23 movement continue to control large parts of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and have even recently captured other areas of the hard-hit North Kivu province.
At a press conference on 27 November, Rwandan President Paul Kagame accused the Congolese government of deliberately delaying the signing of the peace agreement, and claimed that since the previous round of negotiations, the DRC had “put forward conditions other than those actually agreed upon in Washington.”
Congolese President Tshisekedi has agreed to travel to Washington on 4 December to sign the agreement, with Kagame expressing skepticism, saying he was “not sure that we will meet in Washington in the coming week”.
Demand for sanctions against Rwanda
The prospect of achieving peace in northeastern Congo was also a major topic at this week’s AU-EU summit in Angola, with both blocs issuing a joint statement reaffirming “unwavering support for a just, comprehensive and lasting peace in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.”
On the sidelines of the summit in Angola last week, the foreign ministers of both countries sharply criticized each other’s countries’ actions.
Congolese Foreign Minister Therese Kaykwamba said she felt “disappointed” by the current situation, calling on the international community to put more pressure on Rwanda:
“We know what M23 depends on,” the minister told DW, referring to the government of Rwandan leader Kagame – a claim supported by independent observers.
“We are well aware that with a little more pressure, a little more sanctions or accountability, the situation can change rapidly,” Kayikwamba told DW.
However, Rwanda has repeatedly denied the authenticity of evidence that the M23 has its support; In fact, the closest Kigali came to accepting accusations of promoting M23 and other rebel groups in Congo was when it did not respond to such accusations during previous peace talks.
DRC: anger at lack of EU support
Kaikwamba’s frustration at failing to achieve any diplomatic progress is clear. He highlighted that he has often heard from the EU that it is difficult to build consensus among the 27 member states to insist on sanctions because of “different interpretations” of what is going on in their countries.
However, she strongly rejects this argument: “When it comes to human life and when the territorial integrity of a country is violated, there are no different explanations.”
The minister’s allegations against the EU are strikingly clear: “[The EU’s] “Judgments sometimes show that they adopt double standards, it seems that a mother in Buhimba is valued less than any other on the planet.”
Raw material and even rawer emotions
Analyst Roujean goes a step further, saying that “(f)or the Congolese people, it feels as if the EU is making a pact with the enemy.”
Rujian believes that an EU import ban on the purchase of unclassified minerals and ores from Rwanda could be a credible solution in forcing Kagame out.
“Any geologist can confirm that these vital minerals that the EU wants to buy in Rwanda are actually stolen goods from Congo,” says Rujian, adding that since Rwanda remains dependent on foreign aid from Europe and beyond for its budget, it is hardly in a bargaining position.
“At the moment, they are turning a blind eye,” says Rouzian, explaining that the EU is prioritizing its economic interest in raw materials coming from the region.
To this end, the EU Commission recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Rwanda in February 2024, according to which both parties intend to work more closely together on the issue of minerals.
At that time the conflict in northeastern DRC was already at its peak.
Rwanda presents itself as a key EU partner in Africa
Meanwhile, Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe has continued his government’s official course, rejecting the accusations leveled against his country as well as his counterpart’s calls for sanctions.
He told DW in Luanda that the DRC is a state that only talks about sanctions against others instead of solving its own problems: problems of governance, problems of supporting genocidal movements such as [militia] FDLR, problems with hate speech against Congolese people [ethnic groups] Tutsi and Banyamulenge.”
The FDLR is considered a successful organization for former Rwandan soldiers and militiamen of Hutu background who carried out the 1994 genocide against Tutsi and moderate Hutu in Rwanda, making them a rival to the Tutsi-led M23.
Meanwhile, Nduhungirehe pointed out how well Rwanda is doing on the international stage, especially in Europe; He cited an agreement concluded in October according to which the EU will support vaccine production in Rwanda with 95 million euros.
Rwanda accuses DRC of breaking the truth with M23
Nduhungirehe demonstrated Rwanda’s self-perception of being the victim and not the aggressor in the ongoing tensions by highlighting repeated violations by the DRC against the existing ceasefire, particularly the ceasefire signed between the DRC and M23 rebels in Doha in July.
The Congolese army “violates this ceasefire with bombings,” he told DW, citing reports of strikes from drones and fighter jets, which he believes is directed not only against the positions of M23 and other rebel groups, but also directly against the Banyamulenge population.
However, DRC officials believe they must take at least minimal steps to maintain control over the territory, especially since the issue of M23-control over large areas of northeastern Congo remains unresolved.
Who is to blame for the continued closure of Goma airport?
Kaikwamba clearly defended his government’s actions, pointing to the key issue of reopening the airport of the region’s main city Goma as an example; Since the airport is in rebel hands, it is effectively out of commission, which Kayikwamba claims is Rwanda’s fault.
At a conference in Paris on 30 October, it had already been agreed to reopen the airport to facilitate humanitarian access to the area. However, Rwanda withdrew from the plan soon after the meeting.
His counterpart Nduhungirehe rejected the allegation that Rwanda actively chose to hinder the reopening of Goma airport, instead blaming the reality on the ground as the main culprit.
“The airport in Goma is actually in the hands of the authorities, namely M23. To believe that you can open an airport artificially without involving the authorities who physically control it is nonsense,” he told DW.
Meanwhile, Timo Ruijn believes that this mutual tradeoff of blame and accountability is actually a distraction tactic at best, and a leverage point at worst:
“While the DRC wants to use the airport again, M23… wants banks in the border towns of Goma and Bukavu to reopen,” he told DW. He said Congo’s central bank had ordered the closure of these banks to limit cash flow into the rebel group.
If Kinshasa allows banks to operate again, the Goma airport issue could be resolved much faster, Rujian believes that both sides will soon come to their senses and reach a consensus at least on such humanitarian matters.
Perhaps somewhat unsurprisingly, Rwanda’s President Kagame also took part in the weekend with a message of hope; While undecided on his participation in next week’s peace talks in Washington, he told reporters only: “We will wait and see, and continue to hope.”
Edited by: Serton Sanderson