The bearer of bad news, the enforcer of clear orders, a tough negotiator unfamiliar with the historical context of Ukrainian-Russian relations, but who at the same time can give new impetus to peace talks. That’s how Ukrainian observers describe US Army Secretary Daniel Patrick Driscoll, who is expected to become US President Donald Trump’s next special envoy to Ukraine, as Gen. Keith Kellogg is set to step down from the post in early 2026.
Driscoll is reportedly due to return to Ukraine’s capital Kiev for the second time in a week to talk about a US-proposed peace plan. On Tuesday, Trump announced: “In hopes of finalizing this peace plan, I have directed my special envoy Steve Witkoff to meet with President Putin in Moscow and also, Army Secretary Dan Driscoll will meet with the Ukrainians. I will be kept updated on all progress.”
There are several issues of contention over the plan, including questions about whether and to what extent Ukraine should cede territory to Russia, and whether the state should be permanently banned from NATO membership.
What should Ukrainian negotiators be prepared for?
According to media reports, Driscoll tried to intimidate his Ukrainian interlocutors by issuing threats allegedly originating from Russia during his first visit on 20 November. According to US broadcaster NBC, he told Ukrainian delegates that their forces on the battlefield “will face an imminent defeat.”
He also clearly said that Russia is increasing the scope of its air strikes and has the capability to fight indefinitely. He told Ukrainians that as the situation would worsen, it would be better for Ukraine to negotiate a peace agreement now. According to media reports, European diplomats were also present to watch the presentation of the plan.
“People who have met him – especially Europeans – report that Driscoll blackmails, issues ultimatums and is difficult to contact,” said Ivan As of Ukraine’s National Institute for Strategic Studies. “The conversation about the peace plan shows that he only does what Trump and his Vice President J.D. Vance want. If he is told that the peace plan should be implemented, he will do it readily.”
We said Driscoll came across as someone who had no sympathy for Ukraine, and was determined to pressure Ukrainians to make the decisions necessary for his leadership. “He does not want to deviate from his leadership line. Therefore, no one should expect him to take any initiative of his own,” As told DW.
“Driscoll is known as a bulldozer,” another DW source said on condition of anonymity. “However this is not entirely true as he was open to discussion and comments and agreed to changes where they made perfect sense.”
“He’s very results-oriented. But he’s clearly Vice President J.D. Vance’s man, and the relationship with him is obviously very close,” the source said.
Power struggle in Trump’s inner circle
It is well known that Driscoll and Vance have been friends since attending Yale Law School together. “The power struggle in Trump’s circle regarding future elections is intensifying,” DW’s source said. “Whoever achieves the best outcome in negotiating a peace agreement in Ukraine will be able to pin it on their lapel as a badge of honor. And in doing so, they will significantly alter the balance of power within the team.”
However, Ukrainian observers believe that Driscoll and other US officials involved in peace talks lack a historical understanding of the colonialist nature of Russia’s war against Ukraine. He said most people hoped to resolve the conflict through economic pressure, but this did not always work.
Despite these misgivings, observers in Ukraine also hoped that Driscoll would give new impetus to the peace process.
“Driscoll is continuing Trump’s tradition of military compromise on the Ukraine issue,” said Oleksandr Kraev of Prism UA, an independent Ukrainian think tank. “On the one hand, it’s good because it’s a military matter,” he said, though he also noted that Driscoll was very different from his predecessor, Keith Kellogg, “both in terms of his ideas and his powers and his position.”
“This is not an ideal solution for Ukraine,” Kriev said. “Driscoll is inexperienced in diplomatic matters; he is a bureaucrat who wants to advance his career.”
Later this week, Driscoll is expected to discuss a peace plan with Ukrainian leaders. Experts believe he will continue to urge Ukraine to accept the US plan.
Kriev argues that after Driscoll’s visit to Kiev, the peace plan will be discussed and then given final approval by the presidents of the US and Ukraine. He said, “Driscoll is just another special envoy, another person with very vague and vague powers to deal with issues toxic to Donald Trump.” “However, in the end, Trump alone will decide on all issues related to Ukraine.”
This article was originally written in Ukrainian.