Macroeconomic expectations, structural demand and global risks drive the value of gold.
BTC maintains a bearish trend and has lost 20% in a month.
Gold is moving towards a new all-time high driven by expectations of US rate cuts, rising structural demand and intensifying global risks. In contrast, bitcoin (BTC) closes November with a drop of close to 20%, affected by an environment of lower liquidity and a downward trend that has not yet been reversed.
According to several analysts consulted, the divergence between both assets responds to similar macroeconomic dynamics, but with different reaction times.
Indeed, Gold continues its advance after breaking key resistance levels. The ounce of gold is in a continuation of bullish momentum after a period of compression.
In the following graph, published In the TradingView community, it is observed that the price of the metal shows increasing lows supported by an ascending trend line that reinforces the structural strength of the current movement.
According to this scenario, the continuation of the trend is suggested, which projects a technical target around $4,330. However, a possible prior setback is not ruled out.
Macroeconomics boost gold
The technical behavior seen in the ounce of gold coincides with the fundamental reading of the Argentine analyst Emanuel Juárez. He maintains that gold’s advance responds to specific macroeconomic factors.
Among these advances are “the increased probability of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED), the increase in purchases of physical gold by central banks and, finally, the fear of a technological bubble,” said the specialist in dialogue with CriptoNoticias. In his opinion, This combination favors the demand for the metal as a traditional shelter.
The graph provided by analyst Juárez reinforces this reading. In his analysis, gold probably in for new daily and weekly momentum which would take it to surpass the last historical maximum at $4,381.
“The price is already attacking previous highs, and the ascending pattern of high lows suggests continuity of the movement if the buying pressure is sustained,” he says.
Bitcoin: bearish pressure, loss of liquidity and critical levels ahead
For its part, bitcoin’s performance contrasts markedly with that of the metal. BTC accumulates a monthly decline important that Juárez attributes to the liquidity outflow from the digital asset.
«The loss of capitalization in the cryptocurrency market responds mainly to the outflow of liquidity from bitcoin. In November, BTC accumulated a drop that generated a cascading effect on smaller capitalization digital currencies,” he explains.
Charts provided by Juárez show BTC trapped in a medium-term bearish structure, with descending highs on daily and 4-hour timeframes.
The supply zone marked around $92,500 has stopped every recovery attempt. In this context, Juárez identifies a key level. “Next important level to overcome, $93,150.” As you see it, a break of that resistance would invalidate the short-term bearish structure and would open the door to a recovery movement more sustained.
On the other hand, the analyst warns of a high point for BTC. «Critical level 80,600; The loss of this level would take us to approximately $65,000,” he warns. This area coincides with the weekly support in the $81,000 area and the lower range of the descending channel. The current price weakness keeps this scenario active.
Macro fundamentals reinforce the vulnerability of the digital asset in the short term. Juárez points out that BTC is “a macro asset highly dependent on global liquidity.”
Therefore, if the US indices remain weak or extend their correction, the migration of flows towards safe haven assets would complicate a quick recovery of the digital currency market, he points out.
However, remember that “BTC usually reacts with an approximate lag of 90 days compared to traditional market movements,” so an eventual rebound could take time to consolidate.
There are perceptions of risk in bitcoin
Venezuelan economist Aarón Olmos agrees that the downward pressure on BTC responds more to risk perceptions than to technical issues of the protocol.
“Whoever manages money flows in an environment like the one we are experiencing may prefer to place part of their money in gold rather than in bitcoin because historically it has been a safe haven asset,” he tells CriptoNoticias.
For Olmos, the volatility of bitcoin and the wide diversification of associated financial products affect your behavior in times of uncertainty.
The specialist points out that, despite the setback, Bitcoin’s fundamentals remain intact. «The network continues to function the same, the blocks are validated in their established time, nothing is happening. “It is a matter of flow and perception, not of network operation,” he points out.
And it also highlights that large institutional holders continue to accumulate in the long term. “Regardless of everything we are seeing, they continue buying because they know that it is a price correction and that this is going to improve,” he emphasizes.
Two divergent trends, the same macroeconomic background
The current divergence between the behavior of gold and that of bitcoin is explained by global conditions of risk, liquidity and monetary policy expectations.
As gold advances supported by defensive flows and growing institutional demand, BTC faces a restrictive environment where liquidity shrinks and investors’ priority is the preservation of short-term value.
For Juárez, however, this gap is temporary. As you see it, if interest rates are cut on December 10 and institutional investment in the technology sector continues, “we could see a rebound in the US stock indices and, consequently, a gradual recovery of the cryptocurrency market.”
Olmos agrees that the current correction does not alter the long-term vision. “This is part of the cycle, of the historical behavior that bitcoin has shown,” he says.
In his reading, the market is going through a moment of distortion influenced by geopolitical factors and by typical financial behaviors.
Thus, everything indicates that the gap between gold and bitcoin may persist as long as doubts about the US economy remain and rate cuts do not materialize.
Gold advances. Bitcoin corrects. But, according to specialists, both continue to respond to the same macroeconomic cycle, just at different times.