Summary of some of the main findings in the major Survey of nine countries was released on Thursday by french magazine le grand continent,
- More than half of respondents (51%) felt the risk of war with Russia had increased
- More than 80% did not believe that Russia really wanted peace,
- About 70% did not think their country was ready for war
- Only 10% of respondents considered US President Donald Trump a friend of Europe
- Nevertheless, the plurality called for a path of compromise, not confrontation, with Trump’s US administration.
- Nearly two-thirds expressed disapproval of European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
- Three-quarters of people supported remaining in the EU
- Most single-currency users were happy with the euro, but Polish respondents were determined to keep the zloty
Key information on the study and methodology
final 2025 installment of le grand continentRowling’s “Barometer of European Public Opinion” was published on Thursday.
It consulted a total of 9,553 respondents, a representative sample of over 1,000 from nine different EU member states. , Belgium, Croatia, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and Spain.
These questions were put to the public in late November.
On Russia, Ukraine and the threat of war
French respondents were most concerned about potential war, with 86% seeing the likelihood of “an open war involving your country” as high or very high.
Overall, 63% considered the risk to be increased while 31% considered it to be low or negligible. The same 63% believe that the threat of war against “terrorist organizations” has increased in the coming years.
A slightly smaller share, 51%, considered the likelihood of war with Russia to be high amid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. But in Poland, Russia’s only neighbor, 77% of those surveyed considered the risk to be increased. Meanwhile, 46% of respondents said they see little or no chance of war against Russia.
The majority, 61%, supported maintaining or increasing support for Ukraine. Reducing or maintaining support was advocated by 31%.
Respondents were also asked about the risk of war with China, Iran or the US, but less than 20% believed it was more likely in all three cases.
On the question of whether the major powers “really want peace,” Russia scored worst with 81% saying no, and the EU scored best with 77% saying yes. China, at 59%, scored slightly better than the US, yes, at 57%.
More than two-thirds of respondents did not believe their countries were prepared for a major war. Respondents were particularly concerned in Belgium (87%), Italy and Portugal (both 85%).
69% of Germans surveyed felt the country was unprepared as the country struggles to rethink decades of limited military activity following its defeat in World War II. This figure was roughly in line with the average for the entire continent.
On Donald Trump and America
Only 10% of those surveyed believed that US President Donald Trump was a friend of Europe.
Slightly more than 40%, 48%, considered him an enemy, who said he was neither friend nor foe.
Only Polish respondents gave him a net favorable rating, with 24% calling him friend, 19% calling him foe and 48% calling him neither.
The Belgians were most displeased, 7% friends and 62% enemies. Only 8% of Germans gave the thumbs up.
Despite this, participants did not advocate a confrontational path with the US. 48% called for a compromise. One in three people called for outright opposition to the Trump administration, while 19% advocated alignment.
But perhaps it’s notable that amid Trump’s heat of tariff-based blistering, the 19% advocacy alignment is higher than the 13% in March and 11% recorded in September.
Again, Poland was the only country where more people (47%) called for engagement with the US than opposed or compromised. Spain was the only country where a plurality (41%) advocated opposition.
On the European Union, the Euro and Brexit
Pollsters found a clear majority, 77% versus 19%, among the nine member states in favor of remaining in the EU rather than leaving it.
The Iberians were particularly clear on the issue, with 90% in Portugal and 89% in Spain answering Stay.
But EU founding member France, which has one of the continent’s strongest right-wing populist parties and the bloc’s second-largest economy, was the most conflicted. Nevertheless, 61% supported staying and 27% advocated leaving.
Even Marine Le Pen, who once advocated a “Frexit” referendum, has improved her policy on the issue in recent years. She now claims she wants to stay in the EU but wants to reform it “deeply”.
When asked about Britain’s exit from the EU, five years after its completion and almost a decade after the referendum, only 19% believed it was beneficial for the UK. Sixty-three percent considered it negative for the UK. Poles and Croatians offered above-average assessments of the benefits of Brexit.
Opinion was also largely decided on the single European currency, the euro. Of the seven long-term users of the euro, all respondents expressed satisfaction with the currency compared to the national currency, highest in Spain (86%) and lowest in France (59%).
But Croatia, which becomes the 20th country to use the euro in 2023, was deeply divided: 43% said they would prefer the euro, 46% advocated their own currency, 9% believed it would not matter and 2% said they did not know.
Ultimately, polls of Poles made it clear that they wanted to keep the zloty as their national currency. Only 14% said they would prefer the euro, while 72% sought their own currency.
Edited by Shawn Sinico