It has been an incredible journey for the Polish economy. Over the past two decades, the country has transformed from a post-communist transition state to one of Europe’s fastest growing markets.
Driven by strong domestic demand, European Union (EU) investment funds and a thriving manufacturing and services sector, Poland’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) crossed the symbolic $1 trillion (€860 billion) threshold in September, solidifying the country’s place among the world’s top 20 economies, according to the International Monetary Fund.
Suddenly, the country got an opportunity to take the lead in global affairs last month when the G-20, an elite group of wealthy nations, was itself mired in turmoil.
After accusing South Africa of oppressing its white minority, US President Donald Trump boycotted the G20 summit in Johannesburg and later withdrew South Africa’s invitation to Miami in December next year – the first time in history the G20 host has been sidelined.
That move opened the door for Poland to temporarily replace South Africa at the G20 table as an observer at the summit in Miami, Florida in December 2026.
From Warsaw Pact to G20 table in 36 years
Last week, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed Washington’s support for Poland “taking its rightful place in the G20” as a symbol of post-Cold War resilience. The move marks the first time since the G20 was formed in 1999 that a Central or Eastern European country has been invited to a leaders’ summit – even as a guest.
The G20 brings together the world’s 19 largest economies, plus the European Union and the African Union, but Eastern and Central Europe’s role is limited to the EU’s collective seat. This left major regional players like Poland without a direct voice despite their growing economic weight.
As the largest economy in Central and Eastern Europe, Poland wields immense influence in the eastern part of the EU. Its GDP now surpasses that of Switzerland and rival medium-sized Western European states.
Although Warsaw has been lobbying to join the G20 for years, Marcin Klusznik, a senior adviser at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), believes that the South Africa dispute has opened a “natural gap” in the group’s structure that Poland can now fully fill.
“Poland is an example of a country that went from an underdeveloped to a developed economy,” Klusznik told DW. “Adding the largest of these [Central and Eastern European] The country is a harbinger of the region’s success.”
The G20 is struggling to serve its purpose
The dispute with South Africa is one of several challenges now testing the relevance of the G20. Unlike the United Nations or the European Union, the G20 is not a formal international organization, and its power is limited to the influence exercised collectively by its members.
The G20 comprises countries with conflicting interests, including Russia, China, India and Saudi Arabia. This makes unity on issues of security, climate or trade increasingly elusive.
Meanwhile, Trump’s tariff policy and threats of trade retaliation have also destabilized the G20’s founding mission of promoting open markets, while the BRICS grouping – which is also led by G20 members Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – has increased its influence.
Having doubled in size from the original five members, BRICS is now positioning itself as a rival to the G20, challenging the dominance of the US dollar through regional trading in local currencies. This is just one example of the shifting balance of power from the West and its traditional allies towards the global South.
Delibor Rohak, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a center-right think tank, believes Poland can now help shape the G20’s agenda and reset the group’s relevance.
Another voice advocating open markets
“Poland will be a compelling voice [on behalf of Europe]Rohack told DW that Warsaw favors free trade and an integrated global economy over the current trend toward protectionism.
Poland’s observer role comes at a time when the G20 is struggling to find consensus on some of the world’s most pressing issues. Chief among them is Russia’s war in Ukraine, where divisions among G20 member states have prevented a unified response despite nearly four years of conflict.
“Central and Eastern European countries have historical experiences with Russia and the USSR that shape their views,” Kluznik said, adding that this legacy informs how countries like Poland approach security and sovereignty.
He said, “This perspective…brings a sharper understanding of the risks posed by Moscow’s aggression and why resilience matters for economies that want to grow without fear of hegemony.”
Beyond geopolitics, Poland’s economic journey offers a model for how low-income economies can seek similar growth paths. Part of the G20’s mission is to support underdeveloped economies by promoting financial inclusion, debt relief, climate adaptation and knowledge transfer.
Poland’s transformation shows how external funding, competitive industries and strong democratic institutions boost investor confidence, while growing domestic demand promotes sustainable growth.
AEI’s Rohak believes Poland’s rise is “no accident” as it reflects “strong policy and institutions” that give Warsaw a “credible voice … to act as a bridge between advanced economies and emerging markets”.
Permanent G20 seat may prove elusive for Poland
Rubio last week talked about Poland’s potential for full membership of the G20, while Polish officials are already calling the Miami invitation an opening chapter in the formal accession process for a full seat.
Yet analysts say the group’s structure is shaped by politics as much as economics. G20 members Argentina, South Africa and Saudi Arabia no longer rank among the world’s top 20 economies, but have retained their seats due to historical precedent.
Competition is another factor. Other emerging economies from Nigeria to Vietnam are also advocating inclusion. Expanding the G20 beyond its current 21 members risks further reducing its effectiveness.
Optimists argue that Poland’s momentum and the Trump administration’s support could speed up the process, while skeptics believe it could take a decade or more for the G20 to rethink its membership structure.
Edited by: Uwe Hessler