Speculation over the political future of President Nicolas Maduro has intensified after US forces seized a Venezuelan oil tanker off the country’s coast. Wednesday’s incident underlined Washington’s long-term interest in a country that has the world’s largest proven oil reserves – an interest shared by China, although for different reasons.
“Whoever comes to power, I can assure you that the first call will be Trump, but the second will be Xi Jinping,” said Parsifal D’Sola Alvarado, an expert on China-Latin America relations.
D’Sola Alvarado heads the Fundación Andrés Bello (Latin American-Chinese Research Center), based in Bogotá, Colombia, and the Spanish capital, Madrid. He previously worked with Venezuelan opposition leader Juan Guaidó, where he maintained contacts with Chinese officials.
Beijing retreated
Speaking to DW, D’Sola Alvarado said he doubts China would stand firm with Maduro in the event of a confrontation with Washington.
Beyond diplomatic and political support, he thinks “it is highly unlikely that China will provide more active support to Maduro, sell arms, or make new major investments. China does not want more problems with the US.”
China still buys most of Venezuela’s oil. according to US Energy Information Administration (EIA)Nearly two-thirds of Venezuela’s crude oil exports in 2023 went to China, while 23% went to the US.
Before Washington imposed sweeping sanctions on Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA in 2019 – which blocked its access to US financial markets in 2017 – the US was the country’s biggest customer. Production and exports declined soon thereafter.
OPEC data showed Venezuela’s crude exports fell to less than 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2021, continuing the long-anticipated sanctions slide. Production peaked at about 2 million bpd in 2015 before a steady decline due to years of mismanagement, corruption and long-standing underinvestment.
Chevron revives output
Only in 2023 did production begin to improve, with exports rising to 655,000 bpd in 2024 and reaching 921,000 bpd in November this year.
The credit for this rebound goes to the United States, not China.
In view of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Washington eased some sanctions on Venezuela, with the Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control granting US oil major Chevron a special license to resume exports from its Venezuelan joint ventures. In October 2025, the company received new authorization to produce oil there.
Francisco J., an energy policy expert at the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston, Texas. “The improvement in oil production in Venezuela is due to Chevron,” Monaldi told DW. Chevron now accounts for about a quarter of Venezuela’s total production.
Maduro welcomed the renewed US permissions with enthusiasm. Speaking on state broadcaster Telesur in July, he said: “Chevron has been present in Venezuela for 102 years, and I hope the company will operate here without any problems for the next 100 years.”
China’s fading footprint
While Chevron is expanding, Chinese investment is limited to small-scale projects. China Concord Resources Corp has reportedly started developing two oil fields, with plans to invest about $1 billion (€850 million) to boost production to 60,000 bpd by the end of 2026.
But Beijing’s state-backed development lenders such as the China Development Bank and the Export-Import Bank of China have effectively closed their wallets by not issuing new loans to Caracas since 2016. According to the Center for Global Development Policy – A think tank based at Boston University in the US.
Most of Venezuela’s approximately $60 billion debt to China has been reduced through restructuring and debt-for-oil deals.
With a lack of new lending, less diplomacy and quiet outreach to the Venezuelan opposition, D’Isola Alvarado sees clear signals that Beijing is “not fully supporting Maduro.”
He said China was already frustrated by 2011, when $8 billion of Chinese funds “disappeared” from the China-Venezuela Investment Fund. “Chinese officials were very disappointed with how everything turned out and [how] “It all collapsed because of corruption,” D’Sola Alvarado said.
a change with boundaries
He argues that US sanctions were not the main reason for China’s retreat, but were “just another nail in the coffin” of bilateral relations.
Even if power changes in Caracas, D’Sola Alvarado believes China will face limited economic consequences and there will be no “major losses.”
However, the bigger change will be geopolitical, as Beijing will no longer have direct access to the Venezuelan government and its networks. “So it’s always worth it for the Chinese to keep one foot in,” he said.
This article was originally written in German.