Despite structural weakness, bitcoin shows relative strength above $80,000.
Investors are sustaining their cost base and absorbing supply.
The resilience of bitcoin (BTC) is tested in a scenario where investor conviction has become the main retaining wall against falls.
While the market experiences a phase of apathy and the price fluctuates with difficulty, the analysis of the data on-chain reveals that a sector of strategic holders is defending their entry levels. This dynamic suggests that, beyond daily volatility, there are “unsung heroes” who prevent further capitulation of the digital asset.
According to analyst Ignacio Moreno de Vicente, bitcoin is at a price level that directly depends on the beliefs of its investors.
“Bitcoin is trading at the price of belief,” points out The specialist, referring to the fact that the relative strength above $80,000 is not a coincidence, but rather it responds to fundamental psychological and technical levels.
For Moreno de Vicente, the key indicator in this scenario is the True Market Mean Price (TMMP). This metric represents the average acquisition price in the investors’ network, excluding miners. That is to say, the exact point where real capital entered the market.
«Over time, this level has acted as a psychological line in the sand. When BTC trades above it, investors are generally comfortable. Setbacks usually find buyers and falls are seen as opportunities,” explains Moreno.
Currently, this support is located at $81,500, as seen in the following graph:
As long as the digital asset remains above this threshold, investors are “absorbing supply and defending their cost base.” On the contrary, if the price loses this level, Moreno warns that it could become a resistancesince those who bought near that average would use the rallies to abandon their positions.
Measuring bitcoin sentiment and profitability
The analysis incorporates a second behavioral layer through the AVIV Ratio. This metric compares the active market valuation with the realized valuation, focusing exclusively on investor profits.
According to Moreno, the current levels of AVIV They bear similarities to mid-cycle transitions of the past. The graph below reflects it better:
In these periods, the market does not collapse, but it also does not show an aggressive tendency. Instead, the price moves sideways and volatility is compressed.
“This is where the weakness of conviction is exposed,” says the specialist. The stabilization of AVIV between 0.8 and 0.9 is a sign that the trend survives thanks to the silent rebalancing of investors.
Thus, the current scenario raises a fundamental question for the trajectory of bitcoin in the short term: Are investors willing to maintain their positions at their own average price?
Moreno de Vicente concludes that, if bitcoin supports the TMMP, The market structure remains healthy despite the perception of weakness. However, if the price falls below $81,500 and the AVIV continues to compress, it would mean that sentiment is weakening, which usually precedes a search for demand at lower levels. For now, the price of bitcoin is essentially the price of the conviction of its holders.
We will have to wait for the next few hours and days to see if this conviction holds. As CriptoNoticias has reported, a stress test will be experienced tomorrow, December 19, when the Central Bank of Japan will likely announce an interest rate increase, which could have negative repercussions on the world’s financial markets.