Is the United States looking to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro?
if a recent interview published in Vanity Fair Whatever needs to be done, the answer is yes.
The interview made headlines this week, with US President Donald Trump’s chief of staff Susie Wills saying her boss “wants to keep blowing up boats until Maduro cries uncle” – an Americanism referring to a plea for mercy.
This is in the context of a month-long operation by the US to destroy alleged Venezuelan drug boats in the Caribbean.
Early on, it seemed as if drugs were squarely in Trump’s sights. He has long sought to close the US to drug traffickers, and this week he declared fentanyl, a target of both his presidential terms, a weapon of mass destruction.
It was also suggested that the attacks were a pretext to force more resources – oil and rare earths – out of Venezuelan hands. Trump has now ordered a blockade of sanctioned oil tankers.
But Wills’ interview has changed attitudes, or at least reduced speculation over the administration’s intentions. Maduro, who has controlled Venezuela as president since 2013 despite repeated attempts to bring democracy, appears to be squarely at the center of Trump’s campaign.
“I don’t think that was their intention in January this year [the second Trump administration] Come,” said Paul Hare, a retired British diplomat and former ambassador who is now acting director of the Center for Latin American Studies at Boston University.
“The idea was to get a deal with Maduro on exile, maybe get some oil concessions for the Americans and, sort of, get a trade deal that would allow him to stay in power.”
Button for change?
Defeating Maduro is no easy feat, but there is a potentially easier solution for the Trump administration than the battlefields in Ukraine and Gaza.
It would also align with the national security strategy of the second Trump administration, which sets a strong focus on its sphere of influence in the Western Hemisphere – a region that includes the US and, at its periphery, Western Europe.
Jesus Renzullo, a Latin American politics analyst at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, said Trump’s Secretary of State Marco Rubio – a well-known foreign policy proponent and a strong opponent of the Maduro regime – may see an opportunity to increase pressure on Cuba as well.
Cuba is a militarily and economically weak dictatorship and is heavily dependent on Venezuela for energy supplies.
“Venezuela is the only wildcard that Cuba can still count on [its] “The areas that are close to the region, Cuba, will be really disrupted a lot and they will suffer economically,” Renzullo said.
Renzullo thinks a change in leadership would require the US to dramatically increase its pressure on Venezuela before others would consider turning their attention elsewhere to the administration.
,The fact that they are being blocked is not enough. Caracas faced major sanctions during ‘maximum pressure’ in 2019 and they escaped it,” Renzullo said.
And Hare doesn’t see any big play on the part of the Trump administration to intervene in Latin America beyond the Maduro regime.
“Maduro is illegitimate, but I think this is seen as a special case, and I don’t think there will be further aggression on other countries after this,” Hair said.
“I think they are [the Trump administration] “Really concerned about the illegality of Maduro’s presence.”
An eye on heritage, and a reclaiming of the electorate
However, thanks to Wills, the path to change of power may open. Vanity Fair Motivation may not be as obvious in an interview.
The Trump administration, particularly through Rubio, has been supporting the Venezuelan opposition led by newly appointed Nobel Peace Prize recipient María Corina Machado.
Machado has also been vocal in his support of Trump’s intervention in the Caribbean.
However, for Trump, his plan may be less about establishing democracy in Venezuela, as previous US presidents might have sought, but rather the honor of removing a personal rival.
“This is not about oil,” said Jim Marquardt, a retired U.S. Army lieutenant colonel, and now faculty co-head for the Americas at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “And the other thing it’s not about, and I would argue this especially in the case of the Trump administration, it’s not really even about democracy.”
This may come as a surprise, as Trump recognized pro-democracy opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s leader in 2019.
But Maduro remained in power and again thwarted efforts to remove him from office even after a 2024 Venezuelan election, which was considered independently won by his opponents.
Instead, Markwardt said, Trump wants to build on his legacy.
“2019 is when the Venezuela crisis kind of erupted with Juan Guaidó, and it wasn’t resolved then. Biden hasn’t resolved it, and there’s a lot of evidence that Trump cares about his legacy,” Markwardt said.
“He’s tried to resolve the issues with the Gaza Strip… He’s working very hard to work on the peace process between Ukraine and Russia, and so the one that’s a little closer to home in this hemisphere is Venezuela, and I would [say] “Surely this is an easy one to solve.”
Trump has also seen his popularity decline in opinion polls following his re-election, including among the Latin American diaspora who helped return him to the White House, and form a significant group of voters in Trump’s stronghold of Florida.
“It’s an easy way to appeal particularly to the diaspora, who have a large concentration of voting power within Florida, so part of it is also — to appease that voter.”
Edited by: Andreas Illmer