A main topic of discussion in Berlin on 14 and 15 December was the post-armistice security guarantees that Ukraine would receive in the event of an agreement with Russia. Apart from European leaders, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and US President Donald Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner took part in the talks. After this there was a telephone conversation with the American President.
In a joint press conference, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Zelensky were enthusiastic about the progress. He said the security guarantees offered by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and territorial questions were discussed.
Legally binding commitments in view of the ceasefire
In their “Leader’s Statement on Ukraine”, the European leaders referred to “a European-led ‘Multinational Power Ukraine’ made up of contributions from interested countries.” This will help “reinvigorate Ukraine’s forces, secure Ukraine’s skies, and support safe seas, including operations inside Ukraine.”
The statement also outlined commitments to a “US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism with international participation” in the event of a ceasefire, as well as “a legally binding commitment, subject to national procedures, to take measures to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack on Ukraine.”
Citing its own sources, the Reuters news agency reported that Zelensky had agreed to abandon Ukraine’s NATO bid in exchange for security guarantees from the West during talks in Berlin.
It is unclear what guarantees for Ukraine might look like in concrete terms. “These measures could include armed forces, intelligence and logistics support, economic and diplomatic actions,” the European leaders’ statement said. America has not yet issued any official statement.
According to the AFP news agency, a US official said that “the basis of the agreement is basically a really strong guarantee – like Article Five – of a very, very strong deterrence as well.” This reportedly did not include the deployment of US troops.
Will the security guarantee be like NATO’s Article 5?
Susan Stewart of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) told DW that the European leader’s statement and the fact that it outlined concrete measures were “very important” for Ukraine. He said the potential security guarantee is similar to the guarantee given to NATO members by Article 5, which obliges the alliance to support a member state if it is attacked. He said, “Article 5 of the NATO treaty does not provide that an attack must be responded to with military means, but rather that each State must use such means as it considers necessary and appropriate.”
Stewart said it would only be possible to fully assess the guarantees once all the details were published. “But I think it’s very important that this step has been taken now, listing these points and saying: ‘Yes, we Europeans are ready to do this.'” He said the statement indicated that “some agreements” with the US had already been made.
In the opinion of Claudia Major, security expert of the German Marshall Fund of the United States, the security guarantee for Ukraine is not equivalent to the security guarantees given to NATO members. “It is support. However, it is not a legally binding obligation to defend Ukraine in the event of a new attack,” he told German public broadcaster ARD.
He said there is no way to predict based on what is currently known what might happen in the wake of a future Russian attack. “Will troops be sent? Will someone come to defend Ukraine, as in NATO? This is not the case.”
Russia believes it is ‘on the way to victory’
He did not think that Russia would make any concessions because he believed he was “on the road to victory”. “The key issue here is Donbass and whether the Russians can effectively capture the entire region. Right now, the Russians are pushing for that. Until that happens, Putin will continue this war.”
Reisner was also skeptical about potential security guarantees for Ukraine, warning that there were still fears that new commitments could turn into another Budapest Memorandum or Minsk (I and II) set of agreements.
Signed in the past to protect Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, these international agreements did not prevent Russia from invading Crimea in 2014 and launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. “We should expect that these security guarantees, if they come from the United States, are actually serious and will be enforced,” Reisner said.
Wilfried Zilge of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) also expressed fears that the current talks could lead to “Minsk III”. He warned against a “buffer zone” in Donbass where the Russians could reach. Zelensky said after talks in Berlin that the US had suggested establishing a “free economic zone” in areas of the territory currently controlled by Ukraine.
“As soon as the Russians are in an area, even if it’s just a police force, it can be expected that the rules will be weakened and manipulated again,” Zilge told DW. This “could again involve the Ukrainians in provocations, which Russia would eventually use as another reason to annex the region.” However, more importantly, he pointed out that so far Russia has not said it is ready to sign anything.
Russia rejects Christmas ceasefire
The first statements from Russia after the talks in Berlin show little hope for a quick agreement. The Kremlin rejected Chancellor Merz’s idea of a short Christmas ceasefire. , we want peace , we don’t want a truce that will give ukraine A moratorium And prepare For continuation of Was,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
Responding to a question about security guarantees, he said, “We have not seen any text yet.” Once we see them.”, We will analyze them.”
Russia’s attacks on Ukraine are likely to continue through the holidays.
This text was originally published in German.