For more than four years now, General Mamadi Doumbouya has been serving as Guinea’s “transitional president”, having led a coup against then-President Alpha Conde on September 5, 2021.
Doumbouya originally promised to return power to civilians, but it appears he has changed his mind, as he is now running in the elections on December 28.
The country’s new constitution, which was adopted in September, will allow the incoming president to serve a seven-year term. Voters will get to choose between nine candidates, but Doumbouya’s eight rivals are largely unknown to the general public in Guinea, as the country’s most prominent opposition politicians are excluded from the election.
Doumbouya’s main rivals were sidelined by the order
Guinea’s new constitution also provides that presidential candidates must have their principal residence in the country.
Using this new condition, two opposition stalwarts living in exile were barred from running for office in one fell swoop: former Prime Minister Sidiya Touré, president of the Union of Republican Forces Republican (UFR) party, and former Prime Minister Celso Delin Diallo, president of the Union of Democratic Forces of Guinea (UFDG) party.
Guinean authorities suspended the entire UFDG in late August, along with several other parties. The suspension was initially meant to last 90 days, but in the case of the UFDG, it has now been extended: in a statement issued two weeks before the election, Guinea’s Ministry of Regional Administration and Decentralization said that the documents submitted by the party for its participation showed “significant shortcomings”.
It added that the UFDG now has “six months to bring its political organization into line with the new legal provisions.” Otherwise, the party will lose its legal status.
Among various criticisms, the ministry highlighted the fact that the UFDG has not held a party conference since the Guinean junta dissolved the government without explanation in 2015; However, authorities at the same time blocked the UFDG from doing so earlier this year – again without any rhyme or reason.
‘Atmosphere of terror’
Since 2022, the military government led by Doumbouya has banned all demonstrations in the country and has arrested, prosecuted or exiled many opposition leaders.
At the same time, reports of kidnappings and abductions of political opponents have increased significantly.
Amnesty International says this has created a “climate of terror” and joins 24 other Guinean and international human rights organizations in calling on the “authorities to comply with their international human rights obligations to which they committed themselves before the UN Human Rights Council in April 2025.”
Presidential candidates: 66 to nine
According to the Election Commission, originally 66 people had submitted their presidential candidacies to the Supreme Court. However, most candidates were rejected outright.
Macaulay Camara, a former foreign minister and the only woman among the nine remaining candidates, hopes to boost her chances by focusing on connecting with citizens: “My strategy is to mix with people, especially women. Wherever I can find young people,” says the president of the Front for National Alliance (FAN) party.
Ibrahima Touré of the Union for Progress and Renewal (PRUN) party is one of the candidates who was not approved to run in the election – as a man who divides his time between Guinea and Germany.
His platform would have been the country’s education system – or rather, the lack thereof: “The education system is a disaster. The classrooms are dilapidated and completely broken. Those who don’t have money can’t send their children to school.”
Declining support for Doumbouya?
Touré also criticizes the country’s judiciary, calling it “corrupt”. “People are kidnapped, and there is no way to file a case. If a case is filed, it is not taken seriously because the government has a hand in it.”
Together with several other parties, Touré has decided to support Liberal Bloc (BL) party president Faya Milimono, one of a total of nine approved candidates on the ballot.
Milimounou told DW that the initial support for Doumbouya right after the coup has long waned: “Very big promises were made. We know what we have today. We know what we are experiencing today [Doumbouya’s] Government. In fact, his team has come to deceive the Guineans,” Milimono explained, denouncing “terror tactics” which he says are aimed at suppressing dissenting voices.
Doumbouya’s political brand: stability
On the other hand, there is still support for the strongman in some camps: Alassane Diallo is a supporter of the controversial leader, who lives in Germany.
Diallo is optimistic about the December 28 elections: “I believe that Doumbouya is the right person for the position. He is the person who is able to bring Guineans together, overcome all their differences and get them to work,” he told DW, adding that he fully expects constitutional order to return to the country after the elections.
The general’s campaign headquarters is located in the city of Kankan, which was also the political stronghold of ousted former President Alpha Condé. “In Kankan, for example, there is a project to build a 15-kilometre-long, two-lane road. We take credit for this for the president’s arrival,” says activist Lamine Touta Kaba.
Perhaps it is not surprising that the leader is praised even from his closest ranks: for example, Sports Minister Kemou Bogola Haba sees an impeccable record under his leadership: “Four years of positive results in terms of security, economy and leadership – and thus also in terms of stability,” he said.
Perhaps it is this sense of stability for which the election serves as a test, although the outcome may already be decided.
Edited by: Serton Sanderson